President Trump has been criticized from both the Left and the Right for his conduct of the Iran War and his approach to ending that war. Andrew Miller on the Center for American Progress’ website calls it “Trump’s failed war,” and likens it to George W. Bush’s war against Iraq. Meanwhile, some GOP “hawks” argue that Trump should finish the job of ending the Iranian regime, while some America Firsters view the war as a repudiation of Trumpism. In reality, Trump is attempting to accomplish his geopolitical goals (an end to Iran’s nuclear weapons program and its effective support of international terrorism, and a more stable Middle East) by Bismarckian means.
The great British geopolitical thinker Sir Halford Mackinder, in his book Democratic Ideals and Reality (1919), wrote that “No statesman ever adjusted war to policy with nicer judgment than Bismarck.” Mackinder noted that in the 1860s and early 1870s, Bismarck fought three short wars and resolved those wars to Prussia’s benefit, ultimately creating the nation of Germany. “Once he achieved German unity,” Mackinder explained, “he waged no more wars.” Indeed, Bismarck helped prevent wider European wars at the Congress of Berlin in 1878 and diplomatically established a European balance of power that favored Germany but kept the peace for four decades. Henry Kissinger credited Bismarck with producing “a series of interlocking alliances, partially overlapping and partially competitive” that maintained order and peace in Europe. A.J.P. Taylor described Bismarck’s statesmanship as “diplomatic mastery without parallel.”
Bismarck understood the need to blend military force and economic coercion with diplomacy to achieve geopolitical goals. In his memoirs, Bismarck explained his most important geopolitical goal that drove his diplomacy and war-making. “Our task,” he wrote, “was the establishment or initiation of a German national unity under the leadership of … Prussia.” To achieve that goal, Bismarck proceeded with caution and prudence in waging war and making peace. As he explained, “Every great state-commonwealth that loses the prudent and restraining influence … whether that influence rests on material or moral grounds, will always end by being rushed along at a speed which must shatter the coach of state.”
President Trump, like Bismarck, is using war, economic statecraft, and diplomacy to achieve America’s goals in the Middle East. As a candidate and as president, he has criticized the “endless wars” waged by his predecessors as well as their stunning diplomatic errors. President George W. Bush’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan became disastrous once he expanded the wars’ goals to promote democracy in both countries and throughout the region. President Obama — when he wasn’t apologizing for America’s past sins — continued Bush’s wars and embraced the ill-fated “Arab Spring,” which only created more chaos and instability in the region. President Biden’s restoration of the flawed Obama nuclear agreement with Iran and his disastrous pullout from Afghanistan further undermined U.S. credibility in the region.
In his first presidency, Trump promoted regional stability with the Abraham Accords. But after four years of Biden, Trump entered his second presidency facing a reinvigorated and more aggressive Iran (as exhibited in the October 7, 2023, attack by Iran’s proxy Hamas on Israel and Iran’s stepped-up efforts to acquire nuclear weapons). After working with Israel to significantly degrade Iran’s ability to acquire a nuclear weapon in a short 12-day campaign in June 2025, the U.S. and Israel, in late February 2026, launched military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, leadership, and infrastructure. That conflict, which has included Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, has lasted more than four months.
There are conflicting reports that a deal to end the war is close to being finalized. Both President Trump and Pakistan’s Prime Minister initially stated that a deal would be signed on Sunday. Since then, CBS News reports that the U.S. and Iran have electronically signed a memorandum of understanding related to the deal, and a signing ceremony will take place this weekend. The president says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and the U.S. naval blockade will end. Despite all the criticism, if Trump accomplishes his stated goals after two short military campaigns, it will be a Bismarckian achievement.
Bismarck, like President Trump, had a legion of critics on both the Left and the Right, but those critics never caused him to waver in pursuit of Prussia’s and later Germany’s interests. Bismarck should be Trump’s model. And Trump should keep in mind Bismarck’s cautionary advice about global politics: “Man cannot control the current of events, he can only float with it and steer.”
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