Sometimes a chart really helps. Huckabee’s climb is steeper than McCain’s fall in Iowa. There are good reasons for it. Romney could of course still win but does beating Mike Huckabee by 2-5 pts. give him momentum? The biggest MSM headline out of Iowa will be( because the Dem coverage dominates) : ” Hillary Wins!!” or “Inevitable No More!!” Most likely the next headline down will be either ” Romney Squeaks By” or ” Huckabee Topples Romney.” Perhaps even a small win for Romney is enough to ride a wave into NH ( and maybe he just wins that state on his own) but is it a tsunami to carry him to February 5 ? A lot depends on what happens to the rest — does McCain drop out if he doesn’t win NH and his support drifts to Rudy or does Thompson fizzle, sending his support to Romney? If Huckabee is a near or real giant killer in Iowa does he become the guy to beat in SC? Bottom line: it is remarkable that Romney has spent millions in Iowa, worked as hard as he has and had hundreds of events and finds himself in a dog fight with Huckabee. Who’d have thought?
