Mark “Mystery Pollster” Blumenthal:
From the polling perspective, if recent history repeats itself, we can assume two things will occur after the President’s State of the Union (SOTU) speech tonight. First, CNN/USAToday/Gallup and perhaps CBS News will conduct instant reaction polls among speech watchers who will express great enthusiasm for the President and his address. Second, the traditional poll of all Americans conducted in the weeks following the speech will show little or no “bump” in the President’s job approval ratings.
By way of explanation, Blumenthal points to a tendency for the SOTU audience to be disproportionately packed with a president’s copartisans.
