It’s not too late for a few ’06 predictions, so here goes.

First, three reporters — WaPo‘s Dana Priest and NYT‘s James Risen and Eric Lichtblau — who reported the leaks of the CIA secret detention facilities and the NSA program authorized by President Bush, will each be either in jail or facing jail time for refusing to reveal their sources by year’s end. These leaks have damaged national security in a major way and must be punished. The only way the leakers will be discovered is by compelling the reporters’ testimony.

Second, David Cameron will last only until the next general election as Tory leader. He is a man eager to distance himself from Thatcher, to redistribute wealth, and to befog what little his party stands for. If he lasts longer than that, the Tories will render themselves irrelevant. Brit Conservatives need to go back to their dictionaries and study the meaning of “conservative.”

Third, the Israeli political crisis following the impending retirement (or death) of Ariel Sharon will be prolonged. It will not be settled with one or even two successors to Sharon in the prime minister’s post. This will be a generational change, and the next long-term leader is someone we can’t possibly identify now.