TIPP, the most accurate pollster in 2004, shows serious movement in McCain’s favor, with the overall margin at 2.1 points. To me it looks like the poll may be weighted just a tiny bit too heavily in favor of self-described conservatives, but still, I think directionally they are on to something and this is one poll definitely worth watching. I think the best thing to do is not look at the Real Clear Politics poll average, even though RCP is usually invaluable, but instead to understand that RCP includes nutty outliers like Newsweek. Instead, if you take an average of just four polls with good records, I think you might be onto something. Those four are, to the best of my discernment, TIPP (Obama +2), Rasmussen (+5), GWU/Battleground (+4), and, on the advice of the Examiner‘s brilliant Chris Stirewalt, WSJ/NBC — but WSJ hasn’t done a poll since Oct. 20. Just for now, then, I substitute in Fox News (which may be wishful thinking), at +3, and the average margin for Obama right now is 3.5 points, with all the movement in McCain’s direction. I then add a point and a half to Obama because of his superb organization and because of the rampant vote fraud in his favor — and I firmly believe this will be the most fraudulent election in history — which means I think Obama is up by 5 points, effectively.
Two more days of momentum for McCain and, one can hope, another good day on Wall Street on Monday, could get it within 2 points. And if it is within 2 points nationwide (which means half a point if you don’t buy my organization-plus-vote-fraud theory), then the distribution of the votes might, just might, allow McCain to pick the Electoral College lock even while losing the popular vote. The key, as I wrote about ten days ago, will be Pennsylvania. I still think that as Pennsylvania goes, so will go the nation — and I still think McCain has a decent chance at winning Pennsylvania.
In short, McCain needs everything to break right. But he doesn’t need everything to break miraculously right, but only for everything within the mid-ranges of reason to break his way. The good news is, therefore, that a victory for him is within reason. The bad news is that he needs every variable within reason, and with so many variables at play, the combination of all of those together does, indeed, push his chances to the outer edges of — but not beyond — yes, reason.