Over the weekend there was a Zogby poll showing that Obama’s national lead had narrowed to 3 points. “For the first time in the polling McCain is up above 45 percent,” John Zogby said. “There is no question something has happened.” It caused excitement among some conservatives, but I didn’t post on it because it was an outlier and I’ve generally found Zogby polls unreliable (he predicted Kerry would win, after all). But now, just three days later, the new poll shows a near 10-point lead for Obama, and Zogby says: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan’s victory over Carter — but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment…” Wherever you think the race is now, does anybody think that Obama gained so much ground on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday that the race went from a dead heat, to a realignment? Give me a break. It’s fair to say that Zogby data should be completely disregarded from now on as junk.
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