Hope vs. Evidence - The American Spectator | USA News and Politics
Hope vs. Evidence

The Politico examines the precedents and finds no evidence of an impending Obamalanche:

From the fever swamps of the blogosphere to the halls of academia, there is a chorus of voices who have come to the same conclusion about the presidential election: Barack Obama is going to win in November, by something resembling a landslide.

Yet for all the breathless analysis and number-crunching that has convinced observers Obama is en route to an epic victory, there is one key historic fact that is often overlooked-most popular vote landslides were clearly visible by the end of summer. And by that indicator, 2008 doesn’t measure up.

Talk of a landslide for the Democrat has been encouraged by the manic tendencies at Team Obama, and has been abetted by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight (as I’ve noted).

Because of Obama’s weak primary performance in such states as Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, Team Obama began projecting alternative Electoral College roadmaps to the magic 270 — “We’re going to compete in Georgia! North Carolina! Maybe even Louisiana!” It’s all about Obama the “map-changer,” pursuing the “50-state strategy” advocated by David Sirota, et al.

After Labor Day, when the Kool-Aid wears off and Team Obama is forced to confront political reality, I suspect Democrats will wish they’d concentrated their efforts in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri and Florida — and that Obama hadn’t taken a week’s vacation in Hawaii.

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