omney is clearly going all out, invoking his family name at every turn( this
points out it hasn’t generally worked for other Romneys) and pledging to help Michigan
in ways that sound very un-conservative and very much like the industry meddling usually deplored by free market advocates. ( “From legacy costs to health-care costs to [fuel economy] costs, to embedded taxes, Detroit can only thrive if Washington is an engage partner, not a disinterested observer.” ) McCain is getting big crowds
and should benefit from the influx of Independents. However, the polls, including the latest
showing a small lead for McCain [UPDATE: or not
], show it is just too close to call. (Since honest pollsters will admit that determining how many Independents will vote is essentially guesswork, the polls are of limited help. For example, if roughly 50% of the voters are Independents as they were in 2000 Romney may win GOP voters handily and still lose.) Two additional factors to consider: 1) Will McCain’s big bump in national polls create any bandwagon effect for him in Michigan or is it irrelevant? and 2) If Huckabee gets a more traction than anticipated especially with social conservatives in western Michigan will that take votes from Romney and make the gap between him and the second place finisher unexpectedly tight?