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10-Year Time Frame Obscures Full Cost of Democratic Health Care Plan

By on 7.14.09 @ 5:23PM

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the House Democratic health care bill that I summarized below would cost more than $1 trillion over ten years (subject to revision once it evaluates the entire bill). Michelle Malkin noted earlier that it's more like a five year estimate, and I thought it would be worthwhile to add some specific numbers to flesh out that argument.

It's important to keep in mind that the most costly aspects of the legislation involve providing subsidies to individuals to purchase health care ($773 billion) and to expand Medicaid ($438 billion), but it takes several years for those provisions to kick in. As you can see from the chart below, that means that the costs start out relatively modest but ramp up over time. In the first three years of the plan the cost of the subsidies and Medicaid expansion is just $8 billion; in the first five years, it's $202 billion; but in the last five years, it's $979 billion. Put another way, 17 percent of the spending comes in the first five years, while 83 percent comes in the second five years. What this means is that the American people see $1 trillion over 10 years and they think that means the bill would cost about $100 billion a year -- but the reality is more than double that. In the final year of the CBO estimates, 2019, the spending hits $230 billion.

View all comments (27) | Leave a comment

hermit| 7.14.09 @ 6:07PM

The first 5 years of a new entitlement are relatively meaningless. Take a look at what the costs are not of Medicare or Social Security.

Look not a the time period of the selling when the skeleton is put in place but look at the annual cost in the out years when they really add meat to the bones.
We stand at the edge of the abyss and they quietly coach us go ahead jump we’ll catch you… “it’s free healthcare…. “

Roy| 7.14.09 @ 6:10PM

I like the slope of that thing by the end - it ain't done rising.

Pingback| 7.14.09 @ 6:42PM

Michelle Malkin » Document drop: CBO scores the health care takeover links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…from plans with relatively healthy enrollees to plans with relatively unhealthy enrollees. *** Update: Check out the very handy chart from Philip Klein making clear how the CBO’s 10-Year time frame obscures the full cost of Obamacare. Some 83 percent of the spending in the Dems’ House plan doesn’t kick in until the second 5-year period. Posted in: Health care Send to a Friend Printer…

Max80919| 7.14.09 @ 7:18PM

It is amazing how the Democrats, like Chris Dodd, scoff at the CBO's estimates. He doesn't understand how to management a business which is what health care is. After 2019, then what? And this is just nati0nalized health care. It doens't include the impending collapse of Social Secuity and Medicare. If this is the best gov't can do, I want a re-election for ALL elected officials. This is a horror story with an ending Steven King couldn't fathom.

MarkJ| 7.14.09 @ 7:28PM

First Question: a presumably successful ObamaCare program would mean longer America life spans, right?

Second Question: This means that there will be a lot more old white people, right?

Third Question: The Democrats think "diversity" is just swell, right?

Last Question: Given the above, what makes the Democrats think that an increasingly non-white population will be able, much less willing, to indefinitely support free ObamaCare for a rapidly skyrocketing number of old white people?

Pingback| 7.14.09 @ 7:42PM

Hot Air » Blog Archive » CBO cost estimate of House health-care bill: A cool trillion links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…health-care bill: A cool trillion over 10 years posted at 7:42 pm on July 14, 2009 by Allahpundit Share on Facebook | printer-friendly Actually, it’s really a cool trillion over five years. Eyeball the graph Philip Klein posted this afternoon and admire the left’s sleight of hand. They’re using a 10-year timeline to create the illusion that the program costs $100 billion a year or so. In…

Pingback| 7.14.09 @ 8:48PM

House bill to hit millionaires with 5.4 pct surtax - HEALTHCARE!!! - Page 2 - U.S. P links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…cost about $100 billion a year -- but the reality is more than double that. In the final year of the CBO estimates, 2019, the spending hits $230 billion. The American Spectator : AmSpecBlog : 10-Year Time Frame Obscures Full Cost of Democratic Health Care Plan Attached Images   __________________ Imperators “scale of relativity”… Gilad Shalit- days in captivity? – 1000 (as of March 21 2009) Red Cross…

Pingback| 7.14.09 @ 9:05PM

Billions, Trillions, and More: CBO Releases Appalling Dollar Amount for Crappy Obama links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…attempts to obscure the full cost of ObamaCare. About 83 percent of the spending in the Dems’ House plan doesn’t kick in until the second 5-year period. Click here to see the chart: 10-Year Time Frame Obscures Full Cost of Democratic Health Care Plan. From J ames Hudnall, Big Hollywood: While running for President, Barack Obama used the word “change” as his mantra. A lot of people thought he…

Pingback| 7.14.09 @ 9:50PM

House pushes $1 trillion health care reform bill « Wellsy’s World links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…view of governance that will prove amenable to a majority of Americans. It’s not going to be cheap – the CBO scored the bill as costing $1 trillion over 10 years. It might be really over 5 years, as 83% of the spending doesn’t start until 2015. Here’s the graph of spending from the American Spectator: The CBO estimate is a lowball by its own admission. Their caveats, picked up by…

iamse7en| 7.15.09 @ 1:34AM

Let's be honest here, there's no way in Hades that such a bill will pass, and it can't hurt us THAT badly when we have a new President coming.

Pingback| 7.15.09 @ 2:08AM

House Healthcare Bill – They’re Voting On Thursday! « Speaking My Mind links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…of days off work to read the bill. THEN there’s the cost: CBO cost estimate of House health-care bill: A cool trillion over 10 years. Actually, it’s really a cool trillion over five years. Eyeball the graph Philip Klein posted this afternoon and admire the left’s sleight of hand. They’re using a 10-year timeline to create the illusion that the program costs $100 billion a year or so. In fact, it’ll be…

Pingback| 7.15.09 @ 7:51AM

Tarpon’s Swamp links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

Tarpon’s Swamp Tarpon’s Swamp meandering muses from the swamp Home About   Graph from American Spectator. See the steepness of the curve at the out years, up up and away the costs go, no end in sight. What government anything does is stoke infinite demand. Health care, no different, infinite demand…

Pingback| 7.15.09 @ 8:55AM

Health care reality… « Time for Thorns links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…as a massive tax increase over 10 years,  but as Michelle Malkin notes,   it’s more like a 5-year estimate since the plan doesn’t hit top end  until 2015.    Klein has a follow-up post on the numbers here . Arm yourselves with some of these facts,  then select your targets! Written by timeforthorns July 15, 2009 at 12:55 pm Posted in Uncategorized Tagged with health care, Klein, Malkin, Obama, tax…

Pingback| 7.15.09 @ 9:45AM

Intel's earnings--another positive - Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing - Investors links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…healthcare proposal on the elderly (if you are close to 65, this is a must read): http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/2009/07/09/obama-will-repeal-medicare/ And the cost: http://spectator.org/blog/2009/07/14/10-year-time-frame-obscures-fu   International War Against Radical Islam     The latest phony CIA scandal:     http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZjYxMzEyMmFmYzZkOWY1Y…

Pingback| 7.15.09 @ 9:47AM

Democrats Unveil Their “Affordable” Health Care Plan | QandO links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…bill actually said vs. what the committees declared the bill would say. And we all know how honest our Congress is about such things, don’t we? Last but not least, the politics of the thing. Here’s a graph to show you how the planned appropriation of your money will take place: Note carefully when the costs will actually begin to kick in. Yes, when Obama is safely in his second term and hopefully,…

Pingback| 7.15.09 @ 2:49PM

The Obama Big Lie and Inconvenient Truth About Health Care–The Public Option Trojan H links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…bill would cost about $100 billion a year -- but the reality is more than double that. In the final year of the CBO estimates, 2019, the spending hits $230 billion...."     http://spectator.org/blog/2009/07/14/10-year-time-frame-obscures-fu   Put this kill the old people with health care rationing  bill out of its misery by defeatiing the bill now. The life you save may be your own. Do not let Obama kill you…

Pingback| 7.15.09 @ 6:56PM

OBAMA-CARE: long waits, lower quality, rationing, control… « FactReal links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…he will be paid. Trojan horse: “ObamaCare will reduce health care costs” FACT: OBAMACARE WILL SPEND TRILLION DOLLARS TO “CONTROL COSTS” (oxymoron) ● How the CBO’s 10-Year time frame obscures the full cost of Obamacare ( MichelleMalkin.com ) ● Obama to spend a trillion dollars to “control costs” (bet you it will be more) ● CBO: ObamaCare cost in the trillion dollars & leave millions…

Pingback| 7.16.09 @ 7:16AM

CBO estimate of ObamaCare 2x expensive as generally reported | Les Jones links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

CBO estimate of ObamaCare 2x expensive as generally reported Thursday, July 16th, 2009 | Health Care | A trillion dollars over 10 years? Nope. Actually, it’s really a cool trillion over five years. Eyeball the graph Philip Klein posted this afternoon and admire the left’s sleight of hand. They’re using a 10-year timeline to create the illusion that the program costs $100 billion a year or so. In fact, it’ll be…

Pingback| 7.16.09 @ 2:09PM

~ Health Care Nightmare: Just Follow the Money — If You Can « Quick Daily Hits — Poli links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…onomic Failure ~ Government Spending? That Doesn’t Count! ~ Stating the Obvious: There’s NOTHING Efficient about Government Spending Other Related Posts: American Spectator: 10-Year Time Frame Obscures Full Cost of Democratic Health Care Plan Malkin: Document drop: CBO scores the health care takeover Waiting for the health care takeover bill to drop; It’s here: Soak the rich Red State: Bad Economy to Get Worse…

Pingback| 7.23.09 @ 6:25AM

Health Care, Civil Rights, Language, Workforce Corps – the Connection « Daily News links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…being bandied-about, and you know the actual cost will be triple those estimates – which are about .5 TRILLION dollars over 10 years. From the Congressional Budget Office ( CBO), courtesy of American Spectator: Democrat Health Care Projected Cost It’s important to keep in mind that the most costly aspects of the legislation involve providing subsidies to individuals to purchase health care (3…

Pingback| 8.31.09 @ 9:48AM

The American Spectator : AmSpecBlog : 10-Year Time Frame Obscures … | Help Aids links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

… | Help Aids Help Aids RSS Feed Subscribe to the RSS Feed Add to your Favorites The American Spectator : AmSpecBlog : 10-Year Time Frame Obscures … Posted on August 11th, 2009 in Blog | A smart blogger put an intriguing blog post on The American Spectator : AmSpecBlog : 10-Year Time Frame Obscures … Here’s a quick excerpt …healthcare proposal on the elderly (if you are close to 65,…

sdfsdf| 5.10.10 @ 5:22AM

M2TS Converter,
M2TS Video Converter

BoraMac| 9.11.09 @ 5:30AM

Very clever structure for a venture...we have seen thise before...

Early years...take in revenue on promises of big future benefits.
Middle years...start to provide some benefits to a few.
Out years...pray you can cover the escalating benefits from limited revenue.

If you're Bernard Madoff...they call that a Ponzi Scheme and throw you in Jail. If your Obama...he calls it health care reform...what fate does he deserve for running this deceptive scheme on all Americans.

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