Jim, I don't think the prescription drug bill was quite the
either/or thing that Jerry Taylor and Ramesh Ponnuru make it out
to be -- but I side more with Taylor than with my friend Ramesh
on this one.
The bill was a monstrosity. Way too expensive, without nearly
enough reform. And it was passed, of course, only through some
serious cheating by DeLay, Hastert, the White House, and their
allies during a vote from 2 a.m. to 5 a.m. -- almost 2 hours and
45 minutes longer than appropriate. No conservative should EVER
have voted for it, no matter WHAT the political consequences.
But here's the deal: There WERE two good parts of it. One
expanded the availability of health savings accounts. The second
allowed for competition among insurance providers, rather than
providing a government "option" which would soon have gobbled up
the market at the expense both of higher total costs and serious
rationing. One of the biggest wins of free-marketeers in the past
few years was the successful effort to ward off the government
option when congressional Dems tried to implement it several
years later, in 2007. (Full disclosure: I was a paid consultant
on getting the message out against the Democrats' efforts on that
front.) The market approach to providing the drug insurance has
saved well over a hundred billion taxpayer dollars while helping
provide premiums WAY below (by as much as 40%) the premiums that
the Dems themselves said would occur WITH the proposed government
option.
But therein lies the rub: The market approach WORKS, and
Republicans/Bush should have made market reform of Medicare AS A
WHOLE (not just on pharmaceuticals) the price of ANY new
entitlement to prescription drugs through Medicare. In other
words, even if Ramesh (and Jim Antle) are right that voters would
have punished Republicans at the polls if they failed to enact a
prescription medicine plan within Medicare, that does NOT mean
that it had to be THAT PARTICULAR PLAN.
Nobody can prove this, of course, but my political sense of
what's possible has proved far more accurate than not in the past
-- and I am convinced that if the GOP had voted down the package
that passed, they could have then returned and included more
market reforms for Medicare as a whole -- not just for
prescription drugs -- in a second bite at the apple.
In other words, not only would the drug portion of it be designed
to promote effective, cost-saving, consumer-friendly competition,
but Medicare as a whole could have been made to include AT LEAST
some pilot projects to let market forces operate more freely.
Check out the Breaux-Thomas
Commission's reform proposals in the late 1990s -- with Bobby
Jindal acting as executive director of the commission, by the way
-- and see what I mean. Combine those market reforms in the whole
system with the market aspects of the drug benefit AND with the
expanded HSAs that were a welcome side agreement of the drug
benefit, and all of a sudden the entire health care landscape
(and budgetary landscape) might have been changed very much for
the better.
Skeptics will say this was not politically doable. I say that's
only because the White House strategists and congressional
strategists were so inept. The Reagan White House could have
accomplished it. It's all in how you frame and sell the issue and
all in how you play the itnernal politics (and the legitiimate
horse-trading).
We'll never know whether I am right about the politics of it. But
if the politics are uncertain, and the principle strongly argues
against providing a new entitlement without broader systemic
reforms, then you MUST go with principle and oppose the bill.
Republicans who did otherwise were sell-outs, cowards, or asleep
at the switch.
This makes perfect sense. The chances are, the spending bonanza
and deficit nightmare of the next few years will propel the GOP
back into power, at latest in 2014/16 (and only that late because
Obama may be tough to beat in '12.) The ESSENTIAL then is no more
Bushes/squishes/"compassionate conservatives."
We MUST use our opportunity wisely next time, and not waste it --
if Gore had won in 2000 we'd very likely have elected a
conservative in '04, so GWB was a compromise not worth making.
Let's start reforming Presidential selection by getting Iowa out
of the process -- it consistently goes for the worst candidates
and messes up the good ones.
BD57| 5.19.09 @ 11:48AM
Quin:
The issue becomes the politics (every time).
I agree with you that Republicans should have been prepared to
defeat & retool the prescription drug bill. They had
majorities in both houses of Congress and the Presidency - a
competent political operation would've been able to get a second
bill through in plenty of time to prevent defeat of the first one
becoming a big issue during the next political season.
Geez, maybe I answered the question I didn't ask ....
The equation's different now.
If Obamacare is defeated this fall, I suspect the Democrats will
choose to do nothing and campaign on the issue next fall.
There's nothing Republicans will be able to do to force
reconsideration of a more market friendly bill - which means the
issue would be put off until the new Congress convenes in 2011.
While you & I might be fine with that result, Republican
congress-critters won't be.
For whatever reason, they believe Republican ideas are unpopular
and indefensible; they want to get out of the way & see if
the Democrats wreck the train.
Let's start reforming Presidential selection by gettin nike outletg Iowa
out of the process -- it consistently goes for the worst
candidates and messes up tadidas outlethe good ones.
Martin| 5.18.09 @ 2:51PM
This makes perfect sense. The chances are, the spending bonanza and deficit nightmare of the next few years will propel the GOP back into power, at latest in 2014/16 (and only that late because Obama may be tough to beat in '12.) The ESSENTIAL then is no more Bushes/squishes/"compassionate conservatives."
We MUST use our opportunity wisely next time, and not waste it -- if Gore had won in 2000 we'd very likely have elected a conservative in '04, so GWB was a compromise not worth making.
Let's start reforming Presidential selection by getting Iowa out of the process -- it consistently goes for the worst candidates and messes up the good ones.
BD57| 5.19.09 @ 11:48AM
Quin:
The issue becomes the politics (every time).
I agree with you that Republicans should have been prepared to defeat & retool the prescription drug bill. They had majorities in both houses of Congress and the Presidency - a competent political operation would've been able to get a second bill through in plenty of time to prevent defeat of the first one becoming a big issue during the next political season.
Geez, maybe I answered the question I didn't ask ....
The equation's different now.
If Obamacare is defeated this fall, I suspect the Democrats will choose to do nothing and campaign on the issue next fall.
There's nothing Republicans will be able to do to force reconsideration of a more market friendly bill - which means the issue would be put off until the new Congress convenes in 2011.
While you & I might be fine with that result, Republican congress-critters won't be.
For whatever reason, they believe Republican ideas are unpopular and indefensible; they want to get out of the way & see if the Democrats wreck the train.
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JIAYA| 1.11.10 @ 1:20AM
Let's start reforming Presidential selection by gettin
nike outletg Iowa out of the process -- it consistently goes for the worst candidates and messes up tadidas outlethe good ones.