The American Spectator : The Spectacle Blog : A Hot TIPP for McCain

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TIPP, the most accurate pollster in 2004, shows serious movement in McCain's favor, with the overall margin at 2.1 points. To me it looks like the poll may be weighted just a tiny bit too heavily in favor of self-described conservatives, but still, I think directionally they are on to something and this is one poll definitely worth watching. I think the best thing to do is not look at the Real Clear Politics poll average, even though RCP is usually invaluable, but instead to understand that RCP includes nutty outliers like Newsweek. Instead, if you take an average of just four polls with good records, I think you might be onto something. Those four are, to the best of my discernment, TIPP (Obama +2), Rasmussen (+5), GWU/Battleground (+4), and, on the advice of the Examiner's brilliant Chris Stirewalt, WSJ/NBC -- but WSJ hasn't done a poll since Oct. 20. Just for now, then, I substitute in Fox News (which may be wishful thinking), at +3, and the average margin for Obama right now is 3.5 points, with all the movement in McCain's direction. I then add a point and a half to Obama because of his superb organization and because of the rampant vote fraud in his favor -- and I firmly believe this will be the most fraudulent election in history -- which means I think Obama is up by 5 points, effectively.

Two more days of momentum for McCain and, one can hope, another good day on Wall Street on Monday, could get it within 2 points. And if it is within 2 points nationwide (which means half a point if you don't buy my organization-plus-vote-fraud theory), then the distribution of the votes might, just might, allow McCain to pick the Electoral College lock even while losing the popular vote. The key, as I wrote about ten days ago, will be Pennsylvania. I still think that as Pennsylvania goes, so will go the nation -- and I still think McCain has a decent chance at winning Pennsylvania.

In short, McCain needs everything to break right. But he doesn't need everything to break miraculously right, but only for everything within the mid-ranges of reason to break his way. The good news is, therefore, that a victory for him is within reason. The bad news is that he needs every variable within reason, and with so many variables at play, the combination of all of those together does, indeed, push his chances to the outer edges of -- but not beyond -- yes, reason.

View all comments (33) | Leave a comment

Carlos| 11.2.08 @ 1:45PM

Yes, that continues to be the Old Man's problem. He needs to run the table. A tall order, just short of impossible. But not quite so.

Spicy Joker| 11.2.08 @ 2:17PM

It's over. If incumbent Bush couldn't win Pennsylvania against an unlikeable and uninspiring opponent, I don't see how McCain can win it against an opponent who has raised $600 million and is benefiting from a weak economy.

xaix| 11.2.08 @ 2:42PM

Kerry is married to Teresa HEINZ-Kerry. John Heinz was a popular and longtime senator of PA. This connection had to have helped.

Quin| 11.2.08 @ 2:45PM

I thank Spicy Joker for his comment, but I respectfully disagree. The difference is that Kerry could claim experience, a war record, and some "accomplishments," while running against a guy with a more patrician-seeming pedigree (Bush) than McCain has -- a pedigree that doesn't play as well, culturally, in rural and industrial Pennsylvania as does McCain's military background. Add to that the Obama insult of rural Pennsylvanians ("bitter... clinging to religion and guns"), the Murtha insults ("racist" and "redneck"), and the Biden AND Obama antipathy to coal, and McCain suddenly has himself some openings.

Captain America| 11.2.08 @ 3:00PM

Quin, what makes this fascinating is that Republicans typically poll poorly on weekends. Equally remarkable, as you point out, is that the momentum going into Tuesday is towards McCain.

Bob| 11.2.08 @ 3:14PM

There probably aren't that many people who have a research background. There are significant problems with the TIPP methodology. Rather than use random sampling like a good poll, they use forced segments. They have undersampled a couple of segments and their results are suspect. This election is different that 2004 in that the number of undecideds is a lot more and and some segments, like black and young voters, will overperform because of polling methodologies. For example, TIPP does not sample cellular numbers and there are over 20% of voters now with cellular only phone availability. This is especially true with young voters who break 60-40 for Obama. Getting one election right, as every statistician knows, is not a measure of accuracy -- it is just luck.

Secondly, while voter fraud exists, so does voter suppression. In that respect, and from a mathematical point of view, from the numbers I've seen, these should have offsetting results and I wouldn't expect more than a 1 point difference.

Taking one poll out of many is not an intelligent way of using the data. The totality of polls, which can be found in the right leaning Real Clear Politics, provides the largest sample size and is hence the best measure. Any statistician will tell you so. Besides, there are very few outliers at this juncture.

Two things will decide this election -- the ground game/organization and turnout (they are related). The problem McCain has is that he took some of the money that Bush spent on field operations and put it into advertising. In addition, he had no real organization in many of the swing states. If anything, I think the polls probably understate Obama's numbers.

Bob| 11.2.08 @ 3:24PM

Quin, while everything you say regarding PA is true, the fact is that the McCain campaign has not done an effective job of making them issues. Most people don't pay as much attention to politics as you and me. For an issue to work, it must not only be true, but also be relevant to the major issues and effectively communicated. Besides, the McCain campaign has done so much negative advertising about Obama's character, that people don't believe them anymore as polling results indicate. Crying wolf once too often?

M. Tobias| 11.2.08 @ 3:34PM

My highly regarded [by me] analysis projects a McCain win by 5 to 8 points in the popular vote, largely due to rampant Democrat voter fraud, and he'll finish up at 310 electoral college votes. What scientific methodology did I use, do you ask? The same as the pros. None, the numbers just feel right. Now, if I am close enough, I may go pro in 2010. I can't be any more inaccurate than the rest of the pollsters this year.

Tami| 11.2.08 @ 3:46PM

The line Obama delivered that he is going to "fundamentally change the United States of America" has chilled me to the bone.

He hates people who speak against him and will destroy anyone who does.
He believes that non-working people are entitled to our money and the ones who have worked hard to get money are selfish.
He wants to start a "civilian military" what the hell does that mean??
He will abolish the illegal immigration laws, marriage laws and the constitution.
American has no "culture"' as in India, China, or Russia...America was created by ideas. Obama seeks to destroy these ideas and turn our country into a hard core socialist country where we have no say, no differing opinion, no choice. For the life of me I can't figure out why so many people want this in their life. The only reason I can think of that they're voting for this radical is that he has a "D" after his name. They are sheep going to the slaughter and want to take the rest of us along. I've always said "civil war - a little house cleaning never hurt anyone" and I'm afraid this is what it will come down too. So vote your lives away but remember to stock up on illegal hand guns because Obama will be coming for all your worldly possessions soon and leave you defenseless against the evil that is going to invade our serene lives. This man is a frightening as Hitler.

Tami| 11.2.08 @ 4:05PM

Bush up +9 during this timeframe

Tami| 11.2.08 @ 4:06PM

correction.... .9

tony smith| 11.2.08 @ 5:07PM

Most americans self-identify as conservative/very conservative and moderate. The numbers are accurate. This does not say much about ideology or voting record, but this is how people describe themselves.

Ned| 11.2.08 @ 5:49PM

"In short, McCain needs everything to break right."

As he did to make it out of the Hanoi Hilton alive. Imagine the despair these folks had to feel, but they didn't give up. I hope he has one more in the bank and he sends Uncle Barry and the drive-by media down the road with cans tied onto their legs, kicking horse turds, and throwing rocks at the insulators on power poles.

Shoshana| 11.2.08 @ 6:15PM

About these poll results that lean so heavily toward Obama/Biden .....

Up to 4 in 5 people contacted are refusing to participate (this really concerns the pollsters) ..... who ARE these folks? My guess is they are NOT enthusiastic about/ARE worried about Obama, because the Obamacons are just SO excited – they WANT to take polls and LAVISH the LOVE upon their Dear Leader ...... the refusers may or may not be FOR McCain at this moment .....

and .....

The raw data from the polls is WEIGHTED according to the PERCEIVED strong advantage that Democrats have over Republicans in new/overall registrations (you know, Mickey and Minnie .... local dead folks, felons, Dallas Cowboys, Jimmy registering 73 times etc ...)

so .....

Tune out, tune out, tune out the polls and the pundits

and ....

TURN OUT, TURN OUT, TURN OUT the VOTE !

WOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

GO McCAIN/ PALIN 2008!

Frank| 11.2.08 @ 6:18PM

Interesting Tami. Hitler was not from the dominant German culture, he was Austrian. Stalin was Georgian and Napolean Corsican. Even Suleman wasn't Turkish, he was a Kurd. A a "civilian national security force," what the hell is that, indeed; sounds like beginnings of a Komsomol.

Tami| 11.2.08 @ 8:31PM

Yes and although not proven ....yet....Obama was not born in the US..he is Kenyan. And Komsomol training has already begun in our smallest of children.

coolrepublica| 11.2.08 @ 10:11PM

What McCain needs is for people to stop inticipating his loss and get their butt out there and vote. I want to believe that evangelicals who have been waiting for the court to change so they can overthrow roe v wade get their ass out there in record number. Who cares they don't like McCain. It's not about McCain or Obama. It's about whether we want America to be like Canada and France or do we want to make our own destiny as a country.

If I hear one more republican say that they want the world to love us and they are voting Obama, I'm going postal. For the record, I'm not a republican. America did not get where it's at on world love. We are an example to the world because we are different and now people are clamoring to be like the Europeans. F that.

So stop bitching about the polls and get your posterior off your computer and go vote on Tuesday for McCain. He deserves no less. America deserve no less.

truthy| 11.2.08 @ 10:50PM

Right on!

Bob| 11.3.08 @ 6:54AM

Quin, you better look into the background of Tami -- she was born in Iran and hates the U.S. (Insert laugh here.) Seriously, Quin, you can see the type of people the hard right ideology attracts. The comments to your blog show why the Republican Party is in trouble -- a lack of objectivity and intellectual capability.

Tami, you can find Obama's birth certificate here:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/06/13/bobirthcertificate.jpg

coolrepublica -- this is for you!

Bob| 11.3.08 @ 6:55AM

I WANT THE WORLD TO LOVE US AND AM VOTING FOR OBAMA!!!!!

coolrepublica -- you can now go postal!!!!

SmallTownOhioan | 11.3.08 @ 7:29AM

PA has a lot of retired military, which is another reason why PA went for Kerry in 2004. PA will go for McCain this year--Joe the Plumber; the retired military vote; hunters; in Jan. 2008, Sen. Obama said he wants to bankrupt the American coal industry; the guns and religion quip, and more.
PA will more than offset CO.

Ned| 11.3.08 @ 7:33AM

Bob, I want to be just like you when I become intelligent and objective. I will change my name to Oboba. Will you think I'm smart if I do that, huh?

Bob| 11.3.08 @ 7:42AM

SmallTownOhioan - PA will be interesting, but the metrics don't support your position. The key to PA for Obama will be the African-American turnout in Philly and Pittsburgh. Their turnout was low during the last election and can increase by 200,000-300,000 this time. There are significantly more Democrats and fewer Republicans than four years ago. The other key will be the Philly exurbs which are centrist/moderate. Polling has indicated that they were extremely turned off at the Palin pick and, IMO, that will be the difference. Besides, Obama has the better turnout ground operation. I look for a 4% to 10% big win for Obama in PA. However, I think McCain will win in Ohio.

WendyG| 11.3.08 @ 9:21AM

Obama's stated willingness to bankrupt the coal industry (a story which broke in the last 24 hours) may throw a few more states, and specifically PA, McCain's way.

M. Tobias| 11.3.08 @ 10:09AM

Just a little observation on my part. Forget about the polls in this election. This election is unlike any Presidential election in history. I am afraid that the polls are not going to be very representative of the choice of the voters.

In the first place, up to 80% of people contacted by the pollsters are refusing to answer questions. That means that the pollsters have to contact 10,000 people to get 1000 respondents. Not a good sign if you are looking to produce a representative poll.

Second, many of the polls assume Democrats will vote Democratic and weight their poll results accordingly. Given the unprecedented and rampant voter registration fraud on behalf of Democrats, this throws more weight to the Democrat candidate than he really deserves.

And last, there is the Bradley Effect. Most people define the Bradley Effect as white poll respondents saying that they will vote for a minority candidate, while actually voting for his white opponent because of racist views. This is not accurate. Because of the climate in this country there are many people that will say that they are either voting for a minority candidate or are undecided when they have decided to vote for the white candidate simply to avoid the stigma of being LABELED as racist. Look for it to be a factor tis year.

Finally, this election will be marked by the most wide spread vote fraud in the last 50 years, most of it Democrat related. This will swing the results toward the Democrat candidate. How much of a factor thius is remains to be seen. If it can be marginalized, then look for a McCain win by at least 5 points. Then sit back and enjoy the lawsuits and demonstrations.

Happy election season 2008.

BeeGee| 11.3.08 @ 10:17AM

Good to see Bob finally 'fess up.

His long diatribe on McCain and his campaign came right out of the Dem talking points brought up by "Fair and Balanced" Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday. The McCain campaign's Rick Davis put the lie to them, but the Obama camp will continue to pound away.

Example: The notion that McCain sacrificed his on-the-ground-campaign to pay for TV advertising was debunked by Davis.

Although the Obama Urban Legends re McCain go on and on. I don't believe that Barack Obama will ever be president of the United States.

Tami| 11.3.08 @ 10:34AM

Bob (insert laugh here)....I believe this blog is for serious people with serious intelligence who want to discuss serious issues..... obviously you were looking for TMZ.com, couldn't spell and ended up here..

tami| 11.3.08 @ 10:36AM

OH and BTW BOOOOOBBB, the LA Times has admited the birth cert you so proudly speak of is A FORGERY...or can't you read either.

Bob| 11.3.08 @ 11:38AM

Tami - the birth certificate forgery is a MYTH!! Here are the facts:

http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/5626

I didn't know this blog was for serious people if you are the example....

BeeGee -- do you really think any of those talking heads on either side are telling the full truth? What do you expect Davis to say? They all shade the truth -- that is their job. What Davis did not say was that they do not have a ground game in a number of key states because they didn't think they would be competitive. This money went towards advertising. Davis was jerking you. If you just listen to Fox, then you are being severely jerked. You need to listen to all of them and then do your own research. Trust, but verify...

Regarding voter fraud, most of this will be offset by voter suppression efforts like flyers telling African-Americans and Hispanics that Democrats vote on the 5th and "legal reps" going door to door in poor and Hispanic communities telling people that if they vote they and their families will be investigated for immigration and traffic violations.

The responses on this blog represent the reason the Republican Party is in trouble. This is the main reason Obama will win. The social conservative wing is not congruent with the libertarian wing and neither are consistent with the fiscal conservatives. The party needs a unifying theme and the lack of analysis and objectivity in your responses only serve to destroy the party. Without moderate, fiscally conservative Republicans, it is just a minority party who will never regain the White House. This is why George Bush has failed and why McCain can't beat a minority liberal.

Canadian Guy| 11.3.08 @ 3:13PM

"It's about whether we want America to be like Canada and France "

Hey! Pick on somebody else! We just elected Stephen Harper, a superior politician and intellect to anybody on offer in the States right now. You guys only have one serious person out of the four on the ticket. There's McCain, then there's the rest - game show host Barry, Biden the Crapullent Clown, and a sincere but clearly out of her league hockey Mom.

ruth| 11.3.08 @ 3:27PM

Canadian Guy, you think Governor Palin is out of her league? After decades in the senate, Biden thought that FDR was president in 1929 when he spoke to millions of Americans on their television sets. FDR was elected in 1932 and television sets weren't prevalent until the late 40's/early 50's. What an idiot.

Canadian Guy| 11.3.08 @ 3:50PM

Sorry. I don't follow your reasoning. Sarah Palin is qualified because Biden is an asshat? Do elaborate. The connection is not immediately evident to me. I like Sarah Palin. I think she's a decent and intelligent person, but she simply isn't even close to being ready to be Vice-President of the free world, in my opinion.

Tami| 11.3.08 @ 10:55PM

Sarah Palin brings the little guy to Washington. She's been there. Obama has had the American people pay for him every since he landed on these shores YES!!! he's not of this land...He has voted "present" 124 times...the chickenS***...there's no background...you are voting in someone blind as a bat...and I'm afraid it will cost you your life...