The American Spectator

M. Tobias| 10.27.08 @ 6:38PM

The food channel analogy aside, I agree wholeheartedly with the idea that the McCain/Palin ticket is not dead. IMHO, the only way that Barack Obama can be assured of winning is through widespread Democrat vote fraud. If that can be kept under control and enough fence-sitters can wait until Nov. 4th to vote, then McCain and Palin have a very good chance of victory. It will be close, but they can still win. More and more unappealing bits of information keep surfacing about the Anointed One everyday. Maybe even enough to spawn a multitude of Joe the Plumbers.

Joey Plugs| 10.27.08 @ 7:16PM

The question is whether there's a silent though slim majority out there?

M. Tobias| 10.27.08 @ 8:41PM

I just ran across a fascinating bit of information. AOL runs a straw poll on Presidential preference. Reportedly, the poll ending 10/18/08 had McCain up 60% to 38%. In the 10-/25/08 poll McCain was up 63% to 37%. Now I know that this is not a scientific poll, but it is interesting. Just one more point, in July of 2004 the poll reportedly had Bush at 49% and Kerry at 48% with 2% undecided. I am relying on reports as I am not a member of AOL and do not have direct access to the poll results. If anyone out there can confirm this, please do. Thank you.

ashby foote| 10.27.08 @ 9:02PM

All the Press's horses and all the Press's men couldn't put Barack Obama back together again. Ih Barack loses here he will not get the nomination again - the novelty will be gone 4 years from now and 4 years of votes and reality will show him for the same old egg beater that he is.

OCPatriot| 10.28.08 @ 1:50AM

Hey, guys and gals, let's stop being delusional. A trait that seems to pervade this blog is ignoring the facts and retreating into some fantasy. Predicting the future in the way you want it to happen won't get you anywhere except disappointed. I find this wish-fulfillment thing happening to all sorts of Conservatives and Republicans. What is needed now is (1) looking at incontrovertable facts, and (2) building plans of action that have a chance to succeed. Your opening lines are purest wish fulfillment, Mr. Hillyer: "The Obama souffle is slowly starting to settle. I think the souffle hit its peak last Thursday or so. It hasn't been popped -- it's not going to go "Poof" all at once -- but it is settling. And it still has eight more days to settle -- plenty of time for a souffle to get stale and mushy, even if properly refrigerated. " Let's look at the actual figures -

Obama/Biden 306
255 Solid 51 Leaning

McCain/Palin 157
127 Solid 30 Leaning

These figures are based on at least eleven major pollsters, from FOX News to ABC to NBC to Rasmussen to Zogby to Reuters.

You can dispute the polls but not the facts of their results. When all - I repeat, all - the polls show Obama ahead, something must be going on, right?

I'm going to guess that wish fulfillment and not real action is what's losing McCain's campaign. Keep it up and the Republican Party and American Conservatism may just crumble.

Harold Geneen, who made ITT a powerhouse long before GE ever became what it was, used to ask for facts from his managers about why they were failing or what was going wrong. He wanted "hard" facts, not excuses or day dreams. It wasn't always nice when he asked for them, especially for the managers whose divisions were losing money, but it was one factor that made ITT so successful with profits rising month after month for years.

ruth| 10.28.08 @ 2:43AM

The only poll that matters is the one on election day--and that's not until November, 4. So keep your hopes up and ignore the assorted hot-air gasbags around us.

Mick in Va.| 10.28.08 @ 8:24AM

The AOL poll is interesting given that its subscribers have traditionally been rabid leftists. Still, I don't delude myself into thinking it does not look good. So many uninformed out there many who fancy themselves well educated. Whatever the polls it will not affect my vote and I hope it will not affect the votes of others.

M. Tobias| 10.28.08 @ 9:43AM

OCPatriot is right about one thing, something is going on with the polls. But I a not so sure it is their accuracy. I find it very interesting that virtually every poll now has the name of one of the major media outlets in its name. Reuters/Zogby anyone? Pre-election polls are possible indicators of the direction of an event, but they are not the event itself. Polls are being used to direct and decide this election, rather than the votes of the people. I mentioned the AOL poll because I found it interesting that the results, without any weighting or filtering are so grossly opposed to all of the "professional" pollsters results. For those of you who have fallen into a malaise of despair because of the poll results being touted, buck up. This is not a normal election and I think that the normal rules do not apply this year. Vote and we'll all know the results on Nov. 15, after all of the Democrat lawsuits are decided.

Mrs. Jackson| 10.28.08 @ 10:04AM

I don't recall the polls being accurate at all in the primary season so why should we expect them to be now?

Obama's souffle is indeed deflating. And by election day it will be as flat as a deer on Route 80 in Penn. As will Katie Couric's, Charlie Gibson's, Christopher Buckley's, Kathleen Parker's ,David Frum's George Will's etal careers. This does not mean Obama will lose, it just means if he wins the Republicans will regain the House in 2 years and the Senate.

And for a guy who loves himself more than Bill Clinton loved himself, as well as the first African American president (BTW, why is everyone calling Obama black? I thought we were not allowed to use that word. Oh, that's right African American might associate Obama with Rev. Wright -silly me.) anyway for a guy that loves himself like no other American presidential candidate has, 2010 is gonna sting.

OCPatriot| 10.28.08 @ 12:48PM

My point isn't that the polls are right, or that they can't change, but that two things seem to pervade peoples' responses when things aren't going the way they want them to: (a) the spinning out of wish fulfillment fantasies, based only on feelings and nothing factual, and (b) the denigration of an opposing side's ideas or names or positions into some comicbook slogan (calling your opponent 'names' for example). Neither will help the cause; they just serve mainly to ease the pain of feeling something slipping away. The (b) alternative is dangerous because it whips up anger, which leads to taking sometimes dangerous and chancy actions, especially if the times get worse. We owe each other some civility. Rational thought is the right path to understanding what's happening and what we can do about it. This is still the United States of America; it is not the Divided States of American; if you don't believe that you can go someplace else and start your own state, but don't claim that one part of this country is yours and the real part, and the other part is theirs and the phony part. Big city, small town, white/black/red/yellow, we're all part of the U.S.

manish trievdi| 10.28.08 @ 8:03PM

The polls for AOL are wrong Obama lead McCain by 8 points thats how it ends with an Obama win. get use to it and stop crying about it thank god for Obama cause if some way McCain wins we will be living in a cardboard box.. take my word for it..

M. Tobias| 10.28.08 @ 9:08PM

Possibly. But at least it will be our own cardboard box.

ruth| 10.28.08 @ 10:38PM

Sorry, manish, but you sound like you already are living in a cardboard box. Hopefully you live in Ohio because you can use that box (or a park bench) as your residence in order to register to vote.

erik b| 10.29.08 @ 10:03AM

Polls can be just as twisted and manipulated as the United States' medias so called "fainess in reporting" No Bias, No Bull - Right? If NBC, CBS, ABC, and others are in the pocket of Barry -Hussein - Obama - Sorento, and it has already been predetermined by these scumbags that our "messiah" (according to FarrahCON) - is going to be president. Why wouldn't they use these nubers as another tool of manipulation to assure the "prophecy." The real question is why? I will not usher in a new era of oppression for political fairness. Bush is a dipstick no doubt - but the entire Republican party is not Bush - Thats like saying all democrtas are lying, corrupt, homosexuals because Barney Frank is a leader in their party. Or all democrats are short sided totalitarian environmental control freaks like Nancy Pelosi. Or all democrats are spinless floundering jellyfish like Harry Reid. Sounds stupid doesn't it! Thats how "liberals" sound to us "conservatives" when thay make such associatve claims about McCain. Fact of the matter is no one really knows who is goign to win until next Tuesday. For the souls of our children and the foundation upon which this coutry was built, I hope the only "change" thats coming is the realization that Obama is totally inappropriate for the presidency of this country. Let the dems run any candidate worth running for and I'll sign up.

laraine| 10.29.08 @ 12:58PM

I agree with OCPatriot, but I want to take it one step farther. The Republicans have aligned themselves with a small, vocal percentage of Americans who call themselves "Christians," but who hate gays, liberals, pro-choicers, immigrants, so-called elitists (read that as anyone who thinks for himself,) and anyone who has the temerity to disagree with them. This is their base, and the Republicans are destroying themselves from the inside out. That's probably why there are more Independents now and fewer Republicans. I think a vast majority of Americans are so busy trying to keep up with their commitments and their bills that they really don't care much who marries who or what some girl or woman does with an unwanted pregnancy. The Republicans are looking at a huge loss on November 4, and they're becoming more shrill and more hateful in their attacks. Not all Republicans, of course. In fact, I just voted for 2 Republicans here in Washington state. But Republicans as a party will disappear if they don't stop relying on the lunatic fringe and start appealing to true conservatives. And I don't see that happening from the way they're embracing Palin. Palin in 2012? God help us.

American Yidl| 10.31.08 @ 2:56AM

After the first debate I checked out the AOL instant polls and they all, without exception, gave MCCain the win by large margins. Then, the next day (Sunday) all the network morning shows had polls saying Obama won bigtime. I said to myself "What the F?" That can't be correct. Since that time I have followed religiously the AOL instant polls and they have ALWAYS had MCCain leading by large margins. There is something going on here. AOL is far from being a conservative institution. Bored slacker kids, minorities etc are a big part of the AOL culture and yet the polls show MCCain consistently ahead. This is significant. When you ask people to just say 'yea' or 'nay' without all the nuance crap and manipulation...the results can be pretty revealing.