Over the past several months, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and his Democrat challenger Mary Burke have been in a dogfight. Two weeks ago, a Marquette poll had the two tied at 47% apiece among likely voters. But now the latest Marquette poll has Walker leading Burke by seven points (50% to 43%) with the election less than a week away.
This is because Republicans are more likely to turn out for Walker than Democrats and independents are for Burke. This is a consequence of Burke’s unfavorability rating going up.
Could this poll be an outlier? Maybe, but as John McCormack of The Weekly Standard explains:
Although it could be an outlier, the Marquette University Law poll is generally considered the best pollster in Wisconsin politics for its sound methodology and excellent track record. Walker won the June 2012 recall election by precisely the margin shown in that race’s final Marquette poll, and the pollster was within 1-point of the final presidential and senatorial races later that year.
In which case, look for Walker to win his third election in four years. If he does win, I won’t be the only one who will make the case for him to the GOP standard bearer in 2016.