The Meaning of ‘More Probable Than Not’ - The American Spectator | USA News and Politics
The Meaning of ‘More Probable Than Not’
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It’s “more probable than not” that the Indianapolis Colts could not have defeated the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game using a rugby ball, a beach ball, a debutante ball, or a Lucille Ball.

It’s “more probable than not” that the evidence presented by NFL investigator Ted Wells didn’t validate his conclusion of a “more probable than not” guilty verdict for Tom Brady in the Deflate-gate controversy. It’s “more probable than not” that readers of the headlines may feel, well, deflated after reading the Wells Report. It’s “more probable than not” that the NFL would immediately fire any referee announcing a call of “Holding, more probable than not—ten-yard penalty.”

It’s “more probable than not” that Wells’s scientific consultants concluding, as Bill Belichick did in January, that weather conditions decreased pressure by about a pound or more in footballs won’t lead to an apology to the coach by Bill Nye “the Science Guy” or his other ridiculers in the Fourth Estate. It’s “more probable than not” that had we known that every game ball lost air pressure during the first half that this story’s shelf life would have lasted as long as a half of football.

It’s “more probable than not” that the raw data, showing at least one of the two referees measuring eight of the 11 Patriots footballs at or above where Wells’s scientists judged balls inflated to the standard before the game would deflate to at halftime based on weather conditions, contradict the media takeaway. It’s “more probable than not” that a report, which ignores the kosher measurements by at least one official on eight balls and obsesses over the other verboten measurements gauged by at least one official, calls its credibility, as well as the credibility of the two NFL referees the report relies upon, into question. It’s “more probable than not” that the NFL’s investigation doesn’t happen if the league had leaked, along with the Patriots data, the fact that three of the four Colts balls inspected also registered a reading below the 12.5 psi minimum at halftime—with the fourth ball just hitting the 12.5 mark on one referee’s gauge.

It’s “more probable than not,” as Patriots owner Bob Kraft points out, that every cold-weather game in NFL history featured balls deflated beneath 12.5 psi. It’s “more probable than not” that halftime measurements exist on none of these balls because nobody has ever thought to turn such a ticky-tack matter into a cause for angry chatter.

It’s “more probable than not” that Wells accepted time as an excuse for the referees testing just four Colts balls in twelve minutes, and dismissed the difficulty of Jim McNally deflating 12 footballs just right for Tom Brady inside a cramped bathroom in a minute and forty seconds, because it pays to believe his paymaster (the NFL) and to discredit a low-level locker room attendant. It’s “more probable than not” that a roomful of referees could have evaluated the air pressure of more than four Colts balls in 720 seconds. It’s “more probable than not” that disbelieving this while believing that one locker room attendant could relieve the air pressure in 12 Patriots balls in 100 seconds betrays a Star Chamber mindset.

It’s “more probable than not” that Wells misleadingly claimed that the Patriots “refused to make Jim McNally available for a follow-up interview,” when the Patriots cut the process off after three follow-up interviews, to paint the worst possible picture. It’s “more probable than not” that the Wells Report included texts from a Patriots employee to his mom boasting of possessing the ball used by Tom Brady to break the 50,000-yard passing milestone as a means of humiliating him and jeopardizing his job. It’s “more probable than not” that the historic ball thrown in October doesn’t relate in any way to the controversial ones thrown in January. It’s “more probable than not” that Wells included such immaterial but headline-grabbing material in the report to distract from his inability to validate his incoming hypothesis.

It’s “more probable than not” that flaunting tens of millions of dollars, a ringside appearance at Mayweather-Pacquiao hours after attending the Kentucky Derby, a supermodel wife, and four Super Bowl rings makes you guilty of something today. It’s “more probable than not” that a society that roots to ruin winners soon becomes a loser.

It’s “more probable than not” that lawyers using the phrase “more probable than not” want to attaint with guilt without taking on the tough work of proving it. It’s “more probable than not” that “more probable than not” translates from lawyerese as “my brain can’t verify what my gut tells me.”

It’s “more probable than not” that Ted Wells says that I can’t prove any of this. But who needs proof when you have “more probable than not”?

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