The 2024 presidential battleground is growing and tilting decidedly toward former President Donald Trump. It is not just that the states that decided 2020’s outcome are increasingly leaning toward Trump — although they are. There are also strong indications that more states could play a potentially determinant role in 2024’s outcome and that these, too, are moving closer toward Trump. Five months out, President Joe Biden is playing defense on over 100 crucial electoral votes but has less than 20 that he could plausibly take from Trump.
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The 2020 presidential race was closer than most realize. While Biden won by 4.4 percent of the total popular vote, seven states were decided by less than 3 percent of their popular vote: Arizona (0.3 percent), Georgia (0.24 percent), Michigan (2.8 percent), Nevada (2.4 percent), North Carolina (1.3 percent), Pennsylvania (1.2 percent), and Wisconsin (0.63 percent). Biden won six of these (all but North Carolina) and that essentially provided his victory margin over Trump in the all-important electoral vote — four (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin) by less than 77,000 votes and that without which he would have lost the presidency.
In short, almost all the battleground states broke for Biden four years ago.
But what a difference four years can make. According to the RealClearPolitics average of national polling, Biden’s national approval rating is just 40.3 percent, over 15 percentage points below January 2021 readings. In a two-way race, he polls at just 46.4 percent, and in a five-way race he polls at just 39.4 percent.
However, the real story is told in those seven 2020 battleground states: According to RCP polling averages, Biden now trails in each and by 3 percentage points (44.6 percent to 47.7 percent) in all combined. In North Carolina, the only battleground state Trump won in 2020, Biden’s deficit has increased from 1.3 percent four years ago to 4.8 percent today.
There are also strong indicators that five states not considered battleground states in 2020 could be today. Then, Biden won these by seemingly safe margins: Maine (9.1 percent), Minnesota (7.1 percent), New Hampshire (7.3 percent), New Mexico (10.8 percent), and Virginia (10.1 percent). However, recent polls show that Biden’s falling fortunes are having an impact here too. While these states are largely not routinely scrutinized like 2020’s seven battleground states are, back-to-back polls in Minnesota show Biden’s lead at just 2 percentage points — way below his 2020 7.1 percent margin. In New Hampshire, Biden’s lead is just 6 percentage points (and that is from a three-way poll that includes Kennedy but drops candidates Cornel West and Jill Stein — both of whom could be expected to subtract from Biden’s support). If similar attrition is taking place in the other three, 2024’s battleground could now be almost twice as large as 2020’s — 12 instead of seven.
But didn’t Trump have second-tier battleground states too? Yes, he did. Trump won Florida by just 3.3 percentage points and Texas by 5.6 percentage points. However, the latest polls in these states show Trump with leads far above his 2020 vote margins: In Texas he leads by 8 percentage points, and in Florida he leads by 9 percentage points. Thus, while polling shows Biden’s margin has shrunk in these second-tier battleground states, it shows that Trump’s has grown — sizably.
An unmistakable trend is occurring: The 2024 battleground looks to be potentially twice the size of 2020’s. And while 2020’s battleground broke decisively for Biden, with him winning six of its seven states, 2024’s is tilting decisively for Trump.
The potential impact of this 2024 trend is equally clear. If Trump holds all the states that he won in 2020 — and where there is polling in these, he is leading comfortably — then he needs to flip just 35 electoral votes from Biden’s 2020 column to win.
The six battleground states that Biden won in 2020 by less than 3 percent of the popular vote — and all of which he now trails — account for 77 electoral votes. Five second-tier battleground states of 2020 — which Biden won and, if Minnesota and New Hampshire are indicative, are now potentially in play this November — account for another 34 electoral votes.
What this means is that Biden is defending potentially 111 electoral votes, from which Trump only needs to win 35. In contrast, Biden has only one state, North Carolina (and he is trailing in polls there by far larger margins than the one he lost by in 2020) with 16 electoral votes, with which to potentially compensate for any electoral votes that Trump flips from him.
Yes, the election is still over five months away. Yes, Trump still faces numerous legal actions against him — and who knows how many more Democrats could pursue? So, things could get better for Biden between now and November. They could also get worse. But amid all this speculation, one thing is as clear as things could be now: 2024’s battleground is tilted decidedly against Biden, and its slant is steepening.
J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.
