Just a week ago, I bought (on Intrade.com) futures-like contracts on Mitt Romney winning the presidency. I paid 33.7, representing a 33.7 percent chance of Romney’s beating Barack Obama in our election less than two weeks from today.
Just a week later, Romney is now trading 44 percent, after trading over 45 percent in the past 24 hours, matching the highest odds Romney has ever achieved in Intrade betting.
It is not surprising to see this jump in odds immediately following a Rasmussen Reports poll showing Romney with his biggest-ever lead in a group of 11 swing states. To be sure, each state is a separate race, and a big victory in one state won’t overcome even a small loss in Ohio, were that to happen. And while Mitt Romney has a narrow potential window to victory without Ohio, it would be difficult.
Therefore, it is equally important to note that a Rasmussen poll released Wednesday morning shows a 48-48 tie in Ohio, the first time this poll has ever not shown an Obama lead. This comports with a Suffolk University poll released Tuesday which shows a 47-47 tie in the Buckeye State. The RealClearPolitics average of Ohio polls still shows a small lead for President Obama, but with two of the last three polls there showing a tie, it seems that Ohio may be grudgingly drifting, like most other swing states, toward Mitt Romney.
I hope so…and my money is where my mouth is.