On Sunday morning on my radio show, I did a “lightning round” segment in which I asked callers to tell me in 30 seconds what their major issue in the election was and which candidate they were therefore voting for, and I asked a few callers follow-up questions (also giving them 30 seconds to answer those.)
I had three calls in a row (plus probably others whom I didn’t ask about 2008) from people who are voting for Mitt Romney but who voted for Barack Obama in 2008. Among these people (including one who self-identified as “a gay guy”) the overarching issues were the economy and a broader dissatisfaction with his (lack of) leadership.
I simply do not see Obama winning Colorado. And despite current polls I continue to believe that Romney will win Ohio and/or Wisconsin and win the election.
Seriously, who beside a union leader or radical leftist or radical feminist or college student, the combination of which represents a tiny percentage of the electorate, will look at his or her ballot and see “Barack Obama” and say “I want to do that again”?
In short, I think the polls are, to use a George W. Bush-ism, misunderestimating the turnout of Republicans and dissatisfied Independents — and misoverestimating turnout among Democrats.
You can listen to the hour (my show was only an hour because of the Broncos game) here. It’s actually only about 40 minutes without the news and ads. The topic I’m describing here starts 11 minutes in.