A major gambling website says nearly all wagers on the presidential election in the last 48 hours have been on Donald Trump to win.
Irish bookmaker Paddy Power on Tuesday said 91 percent of bets on the election in the last two days have been backing Trump, the Republican nominee.
My, my, what a difference a few weeks can make:
Paddy Power announced earlier this month that it was paying out bets on Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton winning the White House, calling her a “nailed-on certainty to occupy the Oval Office.”
“Trump gave it a hell of a shot going from a rank outsider to the Republican candidate but the recent flood of revelations have halted his momentum and his chances now look as patchy as his tan,” Iomaire said earlier this month.
“Recent betting trends have shown one way traffic for Hillary and punters seemed to have called it 100% correct. Despite Trump’s Make America Great Again message appealing to many disillusioned voters, it looks as though America are going to put a woman in the White House.”
All right, a few days, not a few weeks. It’s stunning that people have continually dismissed the easily observed fluidity of this race. There has been absolutely no reason to ever believe this was over yet so many who should know better keep applying conventional wisdom and historical examples to an election busy defying both.
Personally, I wouldn’t put much faith in any Republican candidate winning with the polls this close because the Democrats always have a vastly superior Get Out The Vote effort. It the GOP candidate is within striking distance but just a little behind, that GOTV advantage generally puts the Democrats over the top. That, however, is logic I would apply in a normal election.
We left normal sometime around March.
The momentum shift is obvious, and it’s not just Trump partisans who are acknowledging it.
This late shift also illustrates the perils of early voting. Most experts will tell you that early voters are usually very decided voters and 11th hour news probably wouldn’t sway them.
That doesn’t really apply to a candidates whose unfavorable ratings have been the kind we’ve seen this year. It makes for greater last minute vulnerability.
It’s still Hillary’s election to lose, but anyone who thinks she can’t really, really hasn’t been paying any attention.