As President Trump has clearly stated, Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and cannot be permitted to block or control passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Further, until it is evident who in Iran is authorized to make foreign policy commitments, no deal can be possible. In the meantime, we have a standoff — unless the unexpected occurs. (RELATED: The Second Cold War Comes Into Focus)
China’s view, expressed after President Trump’s summit last week with President Xi Jinping, that Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open, was accompanied by a pledge not to supply Iran with armaments and an offer to help end the hostilities — although such an offer was rejected by President Trump. China certainly has leverage over Iran, as it has been purchasing about 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. However, America’s discomfort over a protracted conflict with Iran, as well as its continued resource allocation to the Middle East, only works to China’s advantage as it seeks to displace us as the world’s leading superpower. (RELATED: The Cease-Fire Fiction)
Iran has two principal assets left. First is its ability to harass shipping traffic with drones, missiles, mines, and fast-attack boats (over 1,000 by a Strauss Center, University of Texas estimate). Second is its roughly 1,000 pounds of enriched U-235 in gas cannisters believed to be at Isfahan, and possibly Natanz and Fordow, according to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. (RELATED: What’s the Deal With Iran’s Uranium Fetish?)
Iran will do just enough to maintain control of the Strait and demonstrate its missile prowess, but not enough to provoke the United States…
We should expect Iran to continue to attack shipping and sites in the Gulf countries that are our allies. Iran will do just enough to maintain control of the Strait and demonstrate its missile prowess, but not enough to provoke the United States back into major combat operations. In turn, while the White House has been hesitant to resume massive bombing, its forbearance may end. However, resumption of bombing will result in retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases and energy infrastructure of our allies, and will continue to deplete essential weapons stocks potentially needed in the defense of Taiwan. An April analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicates that over half of the U.S. THAAD inventory has been used in defense against ballistic missiles, with no deliveries planned for 2026. The situation is similar for the Patriot system, with modest deliveries planned for this year.
It is necessary to understand the mentality of an enemy. Iran was well-integrated with the West before it was hijacked by a coterie of mullahs led by Ayatollah Khomeini, who by 1979 had fomented a working-class revolution under the guise of Islamism. Like ancient Greece and Rome, Iran once commanded vast empires. About 500 BC, the Achaemenids stretched from what is now Macedonia into part of North Africa to the Indian Punjab. Shortly before the Arab conquest in the mid-7th century, the Sassanid dynasty was considered the height of Persian accomplishment in science, mathematics, and medicine. Later, and for about 200 years during the Safavid dynasty ending in the mid-18th century, imperial Persia again reached an apex in poetry, painting, architecture, and astronomy. Throughout history, the Persians have endured many foreign invaders: Greeks, Arabs, Mongols, Russians, and British. Iran is not a banana republic, and Iranian nationalism and Persian identity are therefore forces to be reckoned with.
President Trump recognizes that assistance from China to end the Iran conflict would undoubtedly have a high price — the sale of the most sophisticated AI chips of Nvidia and a reduced U.S. commitment to Taiwan are their ask. While Europe has diversified sources of oil and is reliant on Norway, the U.S., Kazakhstan, and others (like China), it is vulnerable because the price of oil has risen 50 percent since the start of the conflict with Iran. However, due to the so-called Trump Derangement Syndrome, Europe has been remarkably unable to act in its own national interest. Engaging other nations for belated diplomatic or military support will take time, and President Trump has repeatedly made it clear that he wants an end to the conflict. In the meantime, much of the world has been happy to see the U.S. performing the dirty work.
While President Trump would like to resolve the conflict soon, abandoning the Persian Gulf would be a disaster for the United States and our vulnerable Arab allies. Given the intransigence of Iran and its willingness to endure the kinetic fury of the U.S. and Israel, plus a blockade of its ports by the U.S. Navy, without a diplomatic breakthrough, it is difficult to see an environment other than a continued standoff — a gray area of neither war nor peace, whose effects on the global economy are incalculable.
Nonetheless, we should not rule out “known unknowns.” First, President Trump may lose patience and decide to resume a massive bombardment of Iran. “The clock is ticking, and they better get moving FAST…” as he wrote on Sunday in a Truth Social post. Second, is unleashing the Kurdish Peshmerga, estimated by The Economist at 200,000, although this could result in civil war and later fracturing of Iran. Third, is whether the U.S. and Israel can execute a covert action to achieve regime change, with an alternative government, mobilized armed populace, and military dissidents, and control of the airwaves.
READ MORE from Frank Schell:
America Needs to Prepare for a Long Iran War
The Objective Should Be a Secular and Moderate Iran
America’s Robust National Security Strategy
Frank Schell is a former senior vice president of the First National Bank of Chicago and later was a management consultant. He was a lecturer at the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago and is a contributor of opinion pieces to various journals.
