Republicans have opened up a commanding lead among those most likely to vote in the November election, according to data released by Gallup today.
While, among registered voters, Gallup shows Republicans enjoying a slim 3-point lead in the generic ballot asking whether people prefer the Republican or Democratic candidate in their districts, in reality, most registered voters won’t vote. And among likely voters, Republicans now enjoy a double digit lead over Democrats, the size of which varies based on the turnout assumptions.
In a higher turnout election, Gallup gives Republicans a 53 percent to 40 percent advantage — and in a lower turnout scenario, that gap widens to a staggering 56 percent to 38 percent.
Gallup asks participants a series of questions to determine their likelyhood of voting, and the GOP enthusiasm advantage that has been reflected consistently in their polls this year, makes a huge difference when the sample universe is narrowed to those most likely to vote.