Two Canadians who specialize in foreign affairs published an op-ed Tuesday in Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper to voice their fears that the United States will invade Canada during the Trump administration.
“Canadians must acknowledge the real risk that Mr. Trump will use military coercion against our country,” wrote Thomas Homer-Dixon and Adam Gordon, who are both affiliated with the Cascade Institute at Royal Roads University in British Columbia.
The pair warned, “We must get ready,” and suggested a variety of actions to stave off a potential war with the United States, including by “dramatically accelerating investments in national service and homeland defence, rapidly building out domestic defence industries, and developing a national drone strategy,” as well as “bolster[ing] ties with traditional allies and novel partners alike.” (RELATED: Maduro Captured, Hemisphere Jolted)
Canadians are jumping to the conclusion that the U.S. president has designs on attacking them militarily because of the U.S.’s Jan. 3 capture and extradition of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The action was taken so as to prosecute Maduro for narcoterrorism and cocaine trafficking. The Trump administration had offered Maduro exile in Turkey so long as he relinquished power, but he refused. (RELATED: Maduro in Chains — and Probably the Blood of Children on His Hands)
Homer-Dixon and Gordon conclude that there is “nothing” in international law that would protect Canada that should have protected Venezuela. “As a nation, we rely on exactly the same rules — the obligation to respect state sovereignty, the prohibition on use of force and the principle of non-intervention — for our own safety,” they wrote. They advised that, for Canada’s own protection, the nation should “marshal a global consensus that such flagrant violations of international law are unacceptable.” (RELATED: Yes, Trump’s Action Against Maduro Was Legal)
On its own, the U.S.’s seizure of a dictator with a long record of human rights abuses should obviously not lead to such fretting.
On its own, the U.S.’s seizure of a dictator with a long record of human rights abuses should obviously not lead to such fretting. But, in fairness to Homer-Dixon and Gordon, they are drawing from the U.S.’s recommitment to primacy in the Western Hemisphere, otherwise known as an “America First” strategy, that has been paired alongside the seizure of Maduro. Such a strategy was designated as a priority in Trump’s recent national security strategy document. (RELATED: No Tears for the End of the American Empire)
“American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again,” said Trump at a press conference on Monday.
The U.S. has done much to reassert its dominance in Latin America over the past year, such as by pressuring Mexico to take action against its drug cartels, encouraging Panama to stop allowing China to expand its presence in the region, and announcing tariffs on Brazilian exports. And, in recent days, Trump has implied that he could target Colombia’s president and said that Cuba “looks like it’s ready to fall,” though he said he did not think U.S. intervention in Cuba would be necessary because “it looks like it’s going down.” Further, Trump stated that the U.S. would “run” Venezuela until a transition of power occurred, though that claim has been disputed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. (RELATED: The Toppling of Villains Has Begun in Earnest. It Must Continue.)
More plausibly unsettling for Canada is Trump’s appointment last month of Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry as special envoy for Greenland, Canada’s neighbor to its east. Trump declared that Landry “understands how essential Greenland is to our National Security.” Also, Canadians have surely not forgotten the memes Trump rolled out immediately following his 2024 election that seemingly joked about making Canada the 51st U.S. state. (RELATED: Trump Sends a Cajun to Press the Message to Greenland)
Homer-Dixon and Gordon are far from alone in jumping to fears of a U.S. invasion following the U.S. seizure of Maduro.
“With this precedent in place, what’s stopping the U.S. from invading Greenland, Panama or even Canada,” wrote Maria Weiss in a letter to the editor of the Toronto Sun that was published Monday.
Reporters asked Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday if the seizure of Maduro made him more nervous that the U.S. would invade Canada, to which he responded that it did not. “It’s not going to frighten me. It shouldn’t frighten anyone in Canada,” he responded.
Canada’s former federal foreign affairs minister, Lloyd Axworthy, worried on CTV News Sunday about the danger Canada could be facing. “I think we’re witnessing an act of imperialism taking place in our hemisphere,” he said. “This is not something that’s thousands of kilometres away. We live next door to Donald Trump who has basically made it very clear that he runs the hemisphere and he will do what he wants.”
Further, Ben Rowswell, the former Canadian ambassador to Venezuela, said the U.S. action in Venezuela sends a message to other countries, including Canada, about their sovereignty. “Given that the United States has already indicated very little concern for Canada’s sovereignty, what they’re saying is individual Canadians are going to be less free if America gets it way,” he said.
For his part, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela by “call[ing] on all parties to respect international law,” but he did not condemn the U.S.’s action.
In their op-ed Tuesday, Homer-Dixon and Gordon imagined a “plausible scenario” leading to a U.S. invasion of Canada. First, “grey MAGA money” is poured into Alberta during an independence referendum. Then, even though only 30 percent of the province votes to leave Canada, Trump declares the election rigged and moves troops to the northern Montana border. The president would then force Canada to give up Alberta under the threat of military force.
Such a scenario is, of course, totally unrealistic, and a dubious extrapolation from the arrest of a Latin American dictator, but expect to hear much more from Canadians anxious about a supposed invasion.
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