Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine is spinning out of his control.
The Russian army reached a dismal milestone this spring. For the first time since October 2024, Russian forces experienced a net loss of territory in April, losing 45 square miles of land. Given that Ukrainian drones and robotic warfare had already been slashing Russian gains to pitiful numbers, it was a gloomy finding amid already bleak results. (RELATED: Ukraine Is Making Putin’s Life Miserable in Africa As Well)
By all accounts, the Russian war effort has not gone any better in May. According to an Institute for the Study of War report published Monday, Russian troops continue to fail to “make operationally significant advances,” owing in particular to Ukraine’s drone dominance and mid-range strike campaign.
The Ukrainian drone threat has become so great that Putin decided he could not risk displaying his tanks and super-missiles during his May 9 Victory Day parade.
Of particular threat to Putin’s war machine is Ukraine’s recently gained ability to target Moscow with drone attacks. This has disrupted Putin’s careful illusion that the Russian homeland is unaffected by the war and rattled Russian citizens who had viewed the war as a distant adventure. In May, three people died in Moscow after a massive Ukrainian drone barrage targeted an oil refinery.
The Ukrainian drone threat has become so great that Putin decided he could not risk displaying his tanks and super-missiles during his May 9 Victory Day parade. Moreover, he begged President Donald Trump to arrange a temporary ceasefire so the parade could proceed in this diminished state. It is hard to overstate just how embarrassing this is for Putin. The Victory Day parade is one of the most consequential events on the Russian calendar, and it is Putin’s marquee method of propagandizing his military to the Russian people. This year, all the parade communicated was that Putin cannot keep even Moscow safe. He had to cry to Trump just to march Russian troops through his capital. (RELATED: Putin’s Stalemate, Trump’s Moment)
“This represents a huge blow to his credibility,” said Peter Dickinson, who runs the magazine UkraineAlert.
According to the Financial Times, Chinese President Xi Jinping even told Trump during his trip to China this month that Putin would regret his invasion of Ukraine. A spokesman for China’s foreign ministry later denied the report.
It appears that Russians are picking up on the failures of the Russian war effort and turning against their president and his war, which has now lasted longer than it took for the Soviets to help defeat the Nazis.
“The overall mood is that’s enough already; you’ve been fighting for long enough,” one anonymous Russian official told the Washington Post. “It seems to everyone that it’s been going on for longer than World War II, the Great Patriotic War — and at the same time we can’t even take one region.”
Consternation is especially growing over the state of the economy.
According to Russia’s Federal Statistics Service, the economy contracted by 1.8 percent during the first two months of this year. This is a result primarily driven by international sanctions, high interest rates imposed to combat inflation related to the war, and a labor shortage spurred by Russia’s battlefield losses. Economist Vladimir Milov, who previously served as Russia’s deputy minister of energy, has warned that a recession, inflation, and a budgetary crisis could combine together this year to create an “unholy trinity.”
The state of the economy has led Russia’s financial elite to speak up in unusually strong terms. The Washington Post reported that at an economic forum in Moscow this April, businessmen and economists “upbraided the government over the shrinking economy.”
For instance, Robert Nigmatulin, an economist at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told forum attendees that Russia’s economy was lagging behind China’s and that inflation was stopping economic growth. “We’ve lost everything and still we are the poorest. Even in the poorest regions of China incomes are higher than in our poorest regions,” Nigmatulin said. “GDP growth since 2015 — that’s 11 years — is about 1.5 percent per year. Do you know how much consumer prices have increased by? Seventy-seven percent.”
Additionally, a Russian politician warned in a speech in Parliament that “economic collapse is inevitable” if the problems were not properly addressed.
Ukrainian attacks are also having a direct economic effect. Drone attacks on ports and oil refineries caused Russia to massively slash oil production, diminishing economic gains Russia could have made from higher oil prices following the U.S. attack on Iran.
Dissatisfaction has also been acute over growing internet restrictions, especially over the Russian government’s decision to block Telegram, which had been an incredibly popular social media site in Russia. Young people are foremost among those upset by the government’s interference in their use of the internet.
Journalist Farida Rustamova reported this spring, “The crackdown on the internet is causing noticeable discontent not only among ordinary Russians but also among officials — including senior ones — and large businesses.”
Polls in Russia are necessarily skewed by civilians’ fear of the government, but even these have given Putin warning signs in recent months.
A poll published last month by the Levada Center found that only 27 percent of Russians wish to continue the war against Ukraine. Sixty-two percent of those surveyed said they wish to pursue peace talks with Ukraine.
The largest state-owned pollster in Russia additionally reported this spring that Putin’s approval rating had fallen to its lowest level since the beginning of the war, reaching 65.6 percent.
Putin has another problem on the horizon: recruitment for his war, especially given the high casualty rate suffered by the Russian military. Over the past five months, Russian casualties have eclipsed monthly recruitment figures. Putin has turned to desperate measures, such as paychecks he can only afford if many troops die and the recruitment of greater numbers of foreign troops.
Putin feels trapped in the war given that he has staked his legacy on it. But eventually, something will have to give, as this disastrous war cannot be maintained forever.
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