SACRAMENTO, Calif. — President Donald Trump’s office of the drug czar released a statement on X crediting the administration for the nation’s unmistakable and laudable drop in overdose deaths: “One year. Real Results. Under the Trump administration, ONDCP focused on dismantling cartels, cutting off fentanyl at the border, and saving lives — with major increases and seizures, and the significant decline in overdose deaths. This is what action looks like.” Sounds like good news.
Conservative influencers have promoted this narrative and touted a chart showing that such deaths fell significantly after Trump took office, but there’s only one problem with this argument: It’s not entirely accurate. “The chart is based on a medical study published in June 2025 that looked at drug death statistics in the decade ending in October 2024, which was three months before Trump returned to the presidency. Researchers measured the sharp decline in drug deaths starting in mid-2023, during the Biden presidency,” according to an analysis in Lead Stories.
My point isn’t to credit or critique one administration or another, but to remind us — and Americans constantly need reminding of this — of the perils of viewing every trend and policy through a partisan lens. The complexities of illicit drug use and overdoses rarely are solely driven by high-profile policies. Our nation has a bipartisan history of fighting drug wars, which have generally failed. But one can always tell the partisans from the policy geeks, with the former searching out any trend that reinforces their political loyalties. The latter want to figure out what’s working and do more of it, regardless of what party is in charge.
Let’s start by recognizing the encouraging progress. A recent Los Angeles Times report based on federal CDC data found that “U.S. overdose deaths dropped 21% through August 2025 — the longest sustained decline in decades,” which does bolster the administration’s claims. But it noted the rates “remain above pre-pandemic levels” and that the major good news (a drop of 27 percent) took place in 2024. The improvements have slowed since then. If we really want to keep the trend heading in the right decision, we ought to try to honestly figure out its genesis.
The main reason for the rise in overdose deaths comes from opioid painkillers, which came into widespread use in the 1990s. “In an effort to address opioid overprescribing, policymakers have mounted a series of supply-side interventions,” according to a 2017 report in the International Journal of Drug Policy. “These … strategies have seldom been balanced with concerted efforts to engage and retain people with opioid use disorder. … [I]ndividuals who lost access have turned to cheaper, more accessible, and more potent black market opioid alternatives — including heroin — in unprecedented numbers.”
Denied legal painkillers, many Americans turned to the black market. “Enforcing prohibition incentivizes those who market prohibited substances to develop more potent forms that are easier to smuggle in smaller sizes,” explains the Cato Institute’s Jeffrey Singer. That points to the rise of fentanyl, which is easier to smuggle than heroin. Certainly, a drug-war approach focusing on policing can succeed in cutting down supplies, but it also encourages the drug cartels to become ever more creative in this ongoing cat-and-mouse game.
As my R Street Institute colleagues have reported, increased drug seizures can actually increase overdose deaths by encouraging drug users to engage in riskier behaviors to avoid detection. It also can deprive them temporarily of access to opioids, thus decreasing their drug tolerance and increasing their risk of overdose. Obviously, illicit drug use always is a bad idea, but if the nation is serious about reducing overdoses, it must do more than expect drug users to go cold turkey.
The statistics suggest that something has indeed been working. The answer might be as simple as one policy that has advanced on a bipartisan basis, especially at the state and local levels: increasing the availability of the drug naloxone, which reverses the effects of overdoses.
Newspapers across the country have reported on drops in overdose deaths in their communities, with health officials pointing to its availability as a core explanation. Of course, no one knows for sure and there may be a variety of other factors, including funding for various drug prevention programs, an increase in drug-checking equipment like fentanyl test strips, or telehealth flexibilities for prescribing drugs for opioid use Disorder. But naloxone is a good starting point for further investigation.
The Times article offers another theory based on a recent research paper: A reduction in the availability of chemicals that are used to make fentanyl: “The authors connect that to signs that the Chinese government — at the urging of U.S. officials — took steps in 2023 to clamp down on the selling of substances used to make drugs.” That suggests that a drop in the potency of fentanyl might be another key factor in the decline in overdose deaths.
What more can we do? That’s an open and important question, but a greater focus on some of the mundane details of drug policy and less concern about what politician was in the White House at any given time might actually lead to more progress.
Steven Greenhut is Western region director for the R Street Institute. Write to him at sgreenhut@rstreet.org.
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