Saturday night Rudy was honored by the Italian American Foundation. An amusing report of the festivities is here. I asked Larry Sabato if Italian Americans have a distinct voting profile and could be a factor if Rudy is the nominee. He answered: “Italian-Americans were heavily Democratic until the 1970s, when a long decline began in their Democratic voting patterns. It varies from election to election, and they are a swing group, much like Roman Catholics (there is a large overlap, of course). They are concentrated in Northeastern States, Illinois, Florida, and California. Should they be attracted to Rudy Giuliani, it will help him close the gap in places like New Jersey and Pennsylvania–though a Democrat will still be favored to carry those states, probably.” It may be an ethnic identification or perhaps a sense that he is a urban figure who cuts a different profile than the southern and western GOP leaders of the past, but this is a key aspect of the electability argument Rudy is pushing so hard.
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