Phil: I just read your piece and Terrence Jeffries‘. Frankly, I think Jeffries has the stronger case for two reasons.
First, national security will play an important role in 2008, but it will not “dominate” as you suggest. Values issues played big roles in 2004 (remember “values voters”?) and 2006, elections that are closer to 9/11 than will be 2008. There is no reason to think that they won’t play as big a role in 2008, especially in the GOP primaries.
Second, it seems that Jeffries has the goods on Guiliani’s position on gay marriage:
Giuliani’s pro-gay rights position is so extreme, he advocated stripping away the special legal status of traditional marriage. In 1998, he pushed a municipal ordinance that wiped out all distinctions between married and unmarried couples in New York City law, regardless of their gender.
You can bet that Guiliani’s opponents will use that to no end in attacking him in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The fact is most if not all of the Republican candidates will emphasize their strength on national security. The deciding factor will be social issues, and on that Guiliani loses hands down.