A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) only leading possible Republican challenger Carly Fiorina by four points, 45 percent to 41 percent. In addition to the closeness of the race this early out, Boxer is below 50 percent, which is dangerous for an incumbent.
That said, Boxer has looked vulnerable before and cruised to reelection. (Though often the Republicans have failed to get top-tier challengers for her.) An earlier Rasmussen poll that showed her leading by nine roughly coincided with a Field poll that her crushing Fiorina by 30 points. So we’ll have to see more.