One of the most suprising events in all of last year’s election season was Hillary Clinton’s upset win in the the New Hampshire primary. I remember running into Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire poll, in a sandwich shop on Elm Street in Manchester on the day of the primary. He confidently anticipated an Obama win of at least 8 points, and perhaps one in the double digits. Like many reporters, I went to the Clinton rally that night expecting to be writing her political obituary, and instead stared at the television screens in disbelief as her lead held with more and more precinct data flowing in. Today, the American Association for Public Opinion Research has released a detailed 123-page report attemting to determine what happened.
Among the highlights:
Mark Blumenthal has more.
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