For what it is worth, I also agree with Phil that it makes NO sense for John McCain to announce his Veep pick early. The best time to do it is AFTER Barack Justanotherlyingpoltician Obama does, just in case Obama does something that sets up a different dynamic than expected. As I think I blogged earlier in the week, it’s like playing cards: It’s always an advantage to be able to see the other guy’s cards laid on the table before you play your own. By virtue of having the later convention, McCain can hold his cards longer if he wants. That’s what he should do. As Phil said, if that means waiting until the GOP convention, well, that’s fine. It could draw attention away from Obama’s momentum after the Demo convention, and thus cut into Obama’s expected “bounce.” And it could build suspense, and thus helpful interest, in the GOP convention that might otherwise be lacking — and might mean that the whole GOP convention is overshadowed by media gushing over Obama’s performance the previous week. After all, if there is no actual new “news” at the GOP convention, then the establishment media will have an excuse not to pay too much attention to it when, of course, they can claim that Obama’s post-convention tour, etc., are SO newsworthy.

Finally, of course, waiting longer to name the running mate allows McCain to see how intervening events might change his own needs. What if there’s a natural disaster in South Carolina in late August and Mark Sanford performs brilliantly in the national eye? Wouldn’t that give McCain reason to pick him over, say, Pawlenty? Or what if, during the Olympics in China, some big story breaks about Chinese espionage? WOuldn’t that put a new spotlight on Chris Cox’s excellent bipartisan report on Chinese espionage a decade ago and make Cox suddenly a “hot” figure? Or…. the possibilities are endless.

In short, waiting is better. Far better.

Now, if I could only get McCain to see that even though Portman is better than Pawlenty, Portman in turn loses, quite clearly, on ALL points when compared (and the comparisons are VERY valid, because the parallels are enormous) with both Kasich and with Cox. Even more importantly, McCain must understand that whomever he picks MUST make the conservative movement happy, or else McCain will have no chance.