Matthew Spence of the Times of London finally points out the obvious:
This week’s polls showing Barack Obama with small, but significant, single-digit leads among likely voters are certainly welcomed by Democrats, but recent history hasn’t been kind to early frontrunners. . . .
As hard as it may be to believe, Michael Dukakis was leading the first George Bush by an average of 8.2 percent in June of 1988. Bush went on to win the general election by 7.8 points.
The question is whether the Obama campaign will follow the McGovern/Dukakis “Democratic meltdown” pattern, or whether John McCain’s campaign will emulate the 1992-96 “lackluster Republican” pattern.