Just looking at the Real Clear Politics head-to-heads, and noticed that Barack Obama has failed to gain any major sustained advantage since clinching the Democratic nomination.
No poll has shown John McCain leading since early May, and the last poll to show a McCain-Obama tie was a Newsweek poll on May 22. But finally knocking out Hillary Clinton has produced only marginal gains for Obama.
Immediately after clinching, Obama went up by seven points (48%-41%) in the Gallup daily tracking poll, but by Thursday that margin dropped back to three points (46%-43%) — a statistical tie.
This is significant for the dynamics of the race. Every indicator points toward a bad year for Republicans, generally. Bush’s approval numbers are in the toilet, the Democrats have a huge lead in the “generic ballot” question, the “wrong track” numbers are off the chart. In such a disadvantageous political environment, one would normally expect the Republican nominee to be on the losing end in of an 8%-10% margin.
Yet despite the pandemic of Obamaphilia in the media, McCain is in a statistical tie at the opening of the general election campaign. This bodes ill for the Democrats who, as I suggested Monday, may have picked another McGovern/Dukakis-type loser.
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