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The Spectacle Blog

The Obama Administration Wings It On Egypt

By John Tabin on 1.29.11 @ 1:50PM

Robert Kagan is co-chairman of the bipartisan Working Group on Egypt, and earlier this week he noted to Laura Rozen of Politico that "one thing I have been most struck by in meeting with [U.S. officials] at all levels over the past year is that as of yesterday, they have no plan in any direction."

No kidding. Administration statements this week have been an incoherent mush.

But why is Obama winging it? It didn't have to be this way.

During the Bush years the US embassy in Cairo maintained a small fund to support groups promoting democratic reforms in Egypt, bypassing the Egyptian government. As I noted back in July, the Obama administration ended support for this fund.

The Daily Telegraph -- while failing spectacularly at making this context clear -- reports that according to a WikiLeaked cable, one of the activists who has been arrested this week was sent to New York to meet with other pro-democracy activists. You have to read to the bottom of the story to notice that the embassy apprently ended regular contact with this dissident after 2009.

The Obama administration is trying to claim they've been pressuring Mubarak to liberalize all along. This is risible spin; Josh Gerstein takes it apart.

Earlier in the week the protests in Egypt were dominated by activists like the guy that the Telegraph reported on. The Muslim Brotherhood really only became a visible part of the protests yesterday, and even then were not the dominant force in the streets. I have my doubts that the Army will ever allow the Brotherhood to come out on top in the current crisis, but if they do, it will be the logical consequence of the Obama administration's decision to turn away from the Bush-era Freedom Agenda. American support for an autocrat has a tendency to empower his most anti-American opponents. And make no mistake: While Obama's statement last night was an attempt to move away from unequivocal support for Mubarak, what most Egyptians noticed about it was that he seemed to take Mubarak's promises of reform at face value.

The one thing that is certain now is that Gamal Mubarak, who has fled to London, will not be taking over for his father. The newly minted Vice President Omar Suleiman is now the designated heir; it's an open question whether that arrangement can calm things down (as Jackson Diehl notes, Suleiman isn't what protesters of any ideological stripe have in mind). The best hope is, as John Guardiano suggests below, that the Army will embrace a democratic transition. But it's far from certain, and this administration has done little to lay the groundwork that would have made it more likely.

View all comments (24) | Leave a comment

Uli Kunkel| 1.29.11 @ 2:43PM

Obama is a screaming example of why "The Peter Principle" shouldn't be relied upon to select a president!!!

Occam's Tool| 1.29.11 @ 3:13PM

Hard to have a coherent plan when your head is up your rear.

jharp| 1.29.11 @ 3:51PM

"And make no mistake: what most Egyptians noticed about it was that he(Obama) seemed to take Mubarak's promises of reform at face value."

So now you know what most Egyptians are thinking?

God you people are stupid.

Lullabys, Legends and Lies| 1.29.11 @ 4:10PM

What do these protesters really want? The President made a speech about what's happening over there, isn't that enough for them? Seriously, he made a whole speech, about peace, and change, and calmness, and cooperation, and stuff, what do they want from him? Principles? Support? Real change? Ha!! These protesters obviously don't know our President very well.

jharp| 1.29.11 @ 4:20PM

"What do these protesters really want?"

Let's start with what they don't want.

They don't want the U.S. supporting President Hosni Mubarak.

I very much doubt if they want the former head of Egyptian military intelligence (Omar Suleiman) appointed his vice president (and therefore likely successor).

Nor do they want the Air Force Chief of Staff (Ahmad Shafiq) appointed as Prime Minister.

What do you guys think?

Clearlyhttp://www.eschatonblog.com/2011/01/clearly.html

"The best next step is a 150,000 person US occupation of Egypt so we can write their constitution, figure out who their interim leader should be, and then spend 10 years training security forces.

Also mercenaries. Lots and lots of mercenaries."

Right?

beebop| 1.29.11 @ 8:45PM

Any -- and I mean ANY -- student from Egypt who is protesting in the streets of the USA needs to have his/her student visa revoked IMMEDIATELY and put on the first damn flight to Cairo. Seriously.

Interested Conservative| 1.30.11 @ 12:09AM

You learned a lot in 29 minutes!

jharp| 1.29.11 @ 8:53PM

"Any -- and I mean ANY -- student from Egypt who is protesting in the streets of the USA needs to have his/her student visa revoked IMMEDIATELY and put on the first damn flight to Cairo. Seriously"

ANY student from Egypt protesting?

Really. How about if they are standing with their spouse and protesting against ObamaCare?

Or if they are protesting that you stupid rednecks should be allowed to carry a gun in a bar?

God you people are stupid.

beebop| 1.30.11 @ 8:33AM

It must be a challenge when your vision is so astute that considering a different point of view never even crosses your mind.

I do not personally like guns yet I uphold the constitutionally guaranteed right of others to do so. Funny that I didn't see any prohibitions about where that gun might be carried. I live in an urban area and don't encounter many "rednecks." Can you direct me to a region where I might?

If you are holding a visa to study in this nation, you are a guest of this country and aren't guaranteed any constitutional rights. None. Zip. Don't like it here in America? Leave.

I don't assume you are stupid, merely lost.

jharp| 1.30.11 @ 10:59AM

"If you are holding a visa to study in this nation, you are a guest of this country and aren't guaranteed any constitutional rights. None. Zip"

You are an idiot and have know idea what you are talking about.

Quit while you're behind.

jharp| 1.30.11 @ 11:07AM

Hey beebop,

You right wingers, geeze, ..... wrong on everything.

A student holding a visa?
Enjoys these rights among others.

First Amendment – freedom of expression
Fourth Amendment – protection from unreasonable search and seizure
Fifth Amendment – protection against self-incrimination
Fourteenth Amendment – guarantee of "due process" or "equal protection" under the law

Got that dumbass? First amendment?

God you people are stupid.

beebop| 1.30.11 @ 4:11PM

Not that I am inclined to think that you pull this stuff out of your ... uh ... um ass, but I am wondering where you find the citations for this?

You are a nasty little bore. Boor as well. Nasty. Little.

jharp| 1.30.11 @ 6:09PM

beebop,

Learn to use the google. It is your friend.

And try .edu sites. Most Universities like to keep their foreign students aware of their rights whilst here.

They are paying and awfully lot of money to get an American education. Seems like they deserve to know their rights.

You're welcome.

beebop| 1.30.11 @ 6:43PM

Since you are such a maven, why no website? Perhaps because there isn't one?

Googled. Binged. I think you're full of bunk!

And. I mean that in the nicest.possible.way.com

jharp| 1.30.11 @ 7:42PM

Sheesh. And now you dumbasses can't use the google either? Who ties your shoes in the morning?

Here you go. He's one from Duke.edu

http://www.visaservices.duke.e.....ights.html

God you people are stupid.

ironhorzmn| 1.29.11 @ 10:04PM

I dunno, folks. Why am I the only one who thinks this might become Iran 2.0?

cali| 1.30.11 @ 5:20AM

Why would Obama want to continue the push started by Pres. Bush of democracy, when he is doing everything he can to take away ours??

Will| 1.30.11 @ 6:12AM

"I didn't do it, Julian Assange did it!"
I like the sound byte where he states that "a government has the obligation to listen to what it's people want" I thought that was pretty rich. Then I realized he was talking about Egypt, not the U.S.A. How long before the mullah's take over I wonder, six months, a year? Hope & Change!

martin j smith| 1.30.11 @ 9:06AM

I would support Impeaching Obama NOW!!!!!!!!!
He is too dangerous.

jharp| 1.30.11 @ 1:57PM

martin j smith| 1.30.11 @ 9:06AM

"I would support Impeaching Obama NOW!!!!!!!!!"

For what exactly you idiot.

God you people are stupid.

YerMama| 1.31.11 @ 12:43AM

time to change your diaper BOY -- you are shitting yourself in public again

PattyMor| 1.30.11 @ 3:16PM

Obama isn't winging it on Egypt. The chaos and the subsequent rise to power of the MB is the desired result.

Dai Alanye| 1.31.11 @ 5:06AM

Am I the only one who thinks jharp ought to learn the standard rules of punctuation?

God, jharp is stupid. Alternatively: God! Jharp is stupid. 2nd alternative: Good grief! Jharp is a stupid prattling lefty who writes of "the google" and uses "whilst."

Mark @ Israel| 2.1.11 @ 2:41PM

Obama cannot make up his mind in the midst of this crisis in Egypt. I wonder, what he is up to and what he is going to do to advance his own interests.