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The Republicans' Missing Keystone

By W. James Antle, III on 2.9.09 @ 10:17AM

Over at his site the New Majority, David Frum points to a fascinating new survey (pdf) of Pennsylvania voters who have recently switched their party affiliation from Republican to Democrat. It's not an insignificant number of people: The Democrats' advantage in voter registration in the state leapt from 550,000 in May 2006 to 1.2 million by November 2008. Why did these 650,000 ex-Republicans become Democrats?

Demographically, these Pennsylvanians look very much like the voters the New Majority is worried the GOP is repelling. Almost half (49 percent) have at least an undergraduate degree and more have graduate or professional degrees (24 percent) than just high school diplomas (21 percent). Less than 1 percent of the Republican defectors are high school dropouts. These allegiance-switching voters also skew toward the financially comfortable: 37 percent report incomes above $80,000 a year and the largest single group earns more than $100,000 a year (25 percent).

Yet their main reasons for leaving the Republican Party don't entirely comport with the reasons the New Majoritarians tend to give for the GOP's decline. President Bush himself drove many of them from the party of Lincoln and Reagan (68 percent). The Iraq war was cited as a major factor by 54 percent. That's followed by the GOP's positions on foreign policy more generally (49 percent), environmental issues (45 percent), and taxes and spending (44 percent).

Even though 67 percent of these voters self-identified as pro-choice, only 38 percent of them agreed that the Democratic Party's positions on social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage were closer to theirs than the GOP's. Only 34 percent agreed that the religious right's influence led them to leave the party. Those aren't insignificant percentages of people turned off by social conservatism, of course, but it is less than the number of people who said they were more Democratic in their views on taxes and spending (46 percent). Majorities did agree that the Republican Party was too extreme in its positions (53 percent) and that George W. Bush's presidency sent them heading for the exits (52 percent).

Now, I'm not sure that self-described moderates (37 percent) and liberals (27 percent) who disagree with the Republican platform almost across the board represent the most auspicious set of recruits for a new Republican majority. But it's not clear that every "extremist" who turned people away from the GOP was a social conservative or that socially liberal hawks for the flat tax are necessarily the best people to win them back.

View all comments (16) | Leave a comment

JP| 2.9.09 @ 2:05PM

This kind of voter volitility can be misinterpeted. Frum, himself a "comfortable professional" associates himself with this demographic group. Yet, what transpired between 2004 and 2006 , and again in 2008 cannot just be chalked up to "social conservatives". The voters had essientially the same Democratic candidates in 2004 as they did in 2008 (of course Kerry didn't have the cool). Pennsylvania went to the Dems by a very thin margin in 2004.

The GOP could re-capture the "mushy middle" again, regardless of the presence of many social conservatives in thier ranks. Obama is already giving the GOP plenty of ammunition. Rebuilding the GOP has been made a whole lot easier by the Dems all or nothing spending bill. The GOP's problems are not so great that $1 trillion of new debt cannot fix.

mrkwong| 2.9.09 @ 3:50PM

Well, yes and no.

The middle gets squeezed from every direction - there's the creationists and the pro-life zealots, the climate fraudsters and the gun grabbers.

Mike DeSoto| 2.9.09 @ 3:59PM

"Majorities did agree that the Republican Party was too extreme in its positions"

I'd love to be able to ask these people in exactly what ways the GOP of recent years has been too extreme. From what I've seen the party has been faithfully running to the center or even the left at every opportunity. These seem to be people who've drunk the MSM kool-aid by the bucket.

Thomas| 2.9.09 @ 3:59PM

So, let me get this straight. G.W.Bush, who managed to alienate almost every social conservative in the United States also managed to alienate every moderate Republican in Pennsylvania as well. W was too CONSERVATIVE for Pennsylvania Republicans.

The pundits are right, the Republican Party is doomed. If it had run W again in 2008, it would have lost a sizable portion of the conservative base and, if Pennsylvania is indicative of the nation, most of the moderate Republicans as well. Who does that leave?

Down the rabbit hole or through the looking glass, it's still America in the 21st and a half century.

BlackOrchid| 2.9.09 @ 4:08PM

Well, I was among a large group of Republicans switching party lines - to vote for Hillary as part of "Operation Chaos."

I just haven't decided to switch yet - here in PA we have closed primaries, so I've been switching back and forth affiliation for years - even though I'd identify as a conservative Republican. Everyone in line with me at the county office was doing the exact same thing.

john| 2.9.09 @ 4:10PM

The commonwealth of PA is still a "T," with blue in the lower left and right corners, and the blue in the lower right hand corner so blue is virtually glows in the dark. Wonder how that happened... But take just Philadelphia city from the state and it's solidly Republican. Another problem is not shifting so much as "immigration" from New York and New Jersey to along the eastern border of Pennsylvania.
Still, the shift, what can I say? Kool-aid.

john parker| 2.9.09 @ 4:25PM

Voter registration changes between 2006 and 2008? Uh, doesn't anyone remember Operation Chaos??

Fred Pennsylvania| 2.9.09 @ 4:27PM

I'm a Pennsylvania Republican who pinched his nose and voted for McCain, despite genuine misgivings above the man's policies. Still, I can blame the many Keystone State defectors.

After they'd spent and porked themselves into miniority status, the G.O.P. in the House and Senate has done little more that ask the Dems where and how best they can cave. I praise George Bush for the GWOT, for Iraq, and for keeping us safe for the last eight years. But the last six months of his phone-it-in presidency, the appalling lack of leadership as the financial crisis took shape, had a "What-Me-Worry?" tone that I felt was genuinely disgraceful.

So hey, G.O.P. Either figure out how to get back to basics --- including principled, consistent, vocal opposition to the Democrats' tax-happy Porkopoly --- or get ready to join the Whigs on the scrapheap of American history.

Michael Steele is a welcome step to rejuvenating the brand; Arlen Specter (RINO, PA) is a cautionary tale.

ManBearPig| 2.9.09 @ 4:27PM

Most of the high income people will switch back if the R's re-adopt fiscal responsibility as part of the platform.

President Black Jesus is going to hammer them.

MKS| 2.9.09 @ 4:28PM

Democrats promote compulsion disguised as compassion.

But many would rather accept a disguise than face the work reuqired for recovery and true compassion.

R Hampton| 2.9.09 @ 4:42PM

Sen. Rick Santorum lost 41 to 59 to Casey Jr. Was it because he was not conservative enough or because he was too conservative? Here's the answer -- the moderates & the East Coast love a Giuliani-type Republican but the South & the base despise them.

Brian| 2.9.09 @ 4:49PM

I've said it before and I'm not ashamed to say it again.

Anyone who voted for a Democrat, any Democrat during the last election is/was a complete idiot.

You don't have to love the Republicans, but the Democrats are in general, the party of corruption and complete incompetence.

There is not one Democrat politician in Congress who is either admirable or accomplished. They are all clowns and/or charlatans and usually both.

CapitalistforChange| 2.9.09 @ 5:08PM

I agree with R Hampton about PA...I'm reading all of these "Pat Toomay for Senator" posts since Specter supported the stimulus...The dems would LOVE it if the GOP elected Toomay in the primary...The overarching problem is that the GOP now has a litmus test on Social Conservative issues...The GOP has been lazy about developing new strategies to address concerns of those "educated" residents who may be more fiscally conservative..They also can't get out of their own way by prioritizing polarizing issues like Abortion...Tell PA how the GOP wants to tackle HealthCare and energy and do it without the party looking like it's pandering to insurance and big oil companies!

Keystoner| 2.9.09 @ 5:27PM

You people still don't get it do you? Just because you and your friends, and very likely your neighbors and families, buy into what the GOP has been selling doesn't mean a majority of the country does. You folks are whackjobs, plain and simple - gun nuts, Jesus freaks, xenophobes, small hearted money grubbers, and war junkies. Good luck getting normal/educated America to join that party! Best if you just double down on the craziness and lower expectations accordingly - settle for the South (and really only the rural parts - good luck trying to make inroads into Atlanta, Asheville, or any other city dominated by "librul eleetz." Focus on where the meth labs and white trash are at. I'm sure PA has a few districts where the GOP can still do really well. But sadly (not really) the rest of the state has evolved and won't be in play anytime soon.

geoff stack| 2.10.09 @ 3:45PM

They're only following Arlen Spector's lead. Also, the influence of mainstream media, academia, pop culture, and the current youth of this country is not inconsiderable.
That, along with deep-seated cynicism towards America by those who 'serve' it in congress and elsewhere takes its toll.
Principles, values, conviction and ideals are all sacrificed to the god of convencience and non-confrontation.
And, I hate to say this, but, I believe to the 'feminization' of America plays a part. A good number of my formerly conservative male friends have been converted to liberalism due to the constant and grating pressure from liberal wives and impressionable student offspring .
Who wants to argue for the rest of their lives?
For those who think this is a good thing, consider voting for Nancy Pelosi for president. ( E gads)
Conservatism is only easy when it's not conservatism. Stand tall and leave the waffling to IHOP.