At Large
Russia Redux
The spirit of the Cold War makes Moscow feel good about itself.
What exactly did Western leaders and pundits think would happen as Russia regained economic stability and again gained leverage in the world of international politics? What did they think would be the outcome of a weakened United States undercut by lack of support by some Western European allies?
What they didn’t contemplate was a rebirth of the spirit of the Cold War among Russia’s leaders. They certainly didn’t think that Russia’s defense strategists would rush toward development of new multiple warhead and inflight retargetable missiles. Why would the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces believe they ever would have a priority need for such weapons at a time when a clearly non-confrontational U.S. administration is willing to turn its efforts toward major reductions in strategic armament?
A Cold War mentality has marked Vladimir Putin and his stalwart security, intelligence and military cadre that constitute the siloviki, and this has infected Russia’s perception of dealing with the external world. Of course this is hardly unexpected. Putin and his generation of dedicated former Communist Party members grew up in and were educated by the old Soviet system. Back then they were the young heart and soul of their nation. That the “old folks” mismanaged Russian dominance was not the fault of Vlad and his now middle-aged buddies.
After nearly twenty years of struggling through evolution of a new format, Russia — with its modernization and expansion of its oil and gas industry — is ready again to accept an international leadership role. Russia didn’t lose its scientific genius. It didn’t lose its traditional nationalism. Russia, with the continuation of its substantial oil and gas income, has weathered the global financial breakdown rather better than expected. Why not show the world it’s back in the game? What better way than bulking up their military capability and politically challenging American strategic ambitions?
It would be wrong, however, to place the full responsibility for Russian resurgence on Vladimir Putin. In spite of his authoritarian personality, Putin works within and through what is by now a well-structured system. Even his self-manufactured evolving rivalry with his own former aide, Dmitry Medvedev, provides a useful image of democratic contest. Whether real or not, the reported competition between the leaders keeps alive a valuable good-cop, bad-cop negotiation potential. The Russians clearly have not lost their facility in international political chess.
Iran now has become a major piece in the new Russia/America match. Washington appears to have lost sight of the fact that Russo-Iranian energy relations go back to the period of the Shah and the building of two trans-national gas pipelines, IGAT-1 and IGAT-2. Bringing Persian gas into the Soviet Union was a major project that continued through both the Shah’s administration and the later clerical governments. That Russian engineers are now assisting in Iranian nuclear energy development should come as no surprise.
Russia has no security fears of Iran. If anything, Russia’s intelligence service gains considerable information on the Middle East and South Asia matters from their liaison with their counterparts in Tehran. In turn the Russians have been quite effective in restraining UN economic sanctions and gaining time for Iran to develop its nuclear weapon capability. It’s a mutually profitable arrangement between two neighbors. It would not be inappropriate to say Russia and Iran have a “special relationship.”
Putin’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has let it be known that he considers Ahmadinejad’s tirades against Israel to be mere bluster. He believes the Iranians — from the Supreme leader down — have no intention of attacking Israel with nuclear weapons. It is Russian thinking that Iranian strategy is based on having the ability to threaten rather than attack.
Russia’s ambition is to gain some form of strategic political-military parity with the U.S. even if it can’t match every aspect of American strengths. Moscow wants to regain effective dominance over the regions (now republics) of the former Soviet Union (FSU) as well as impress Western Europe with its overall power. In the meantime, the construction of new pipelines bringing Russian gas westward can have the effect of building an energy noose around Europe’s neck.
This form of political economic maneuver combined with an implicit show of military force is akin to earlier centuries of European strategic thinking. It is adequate to make the FSU and ex-Soviet Bloc nations of Eastern Europe take notice. The Russian leadership holds essential the image of their country carrying a big stick.
As part of this tactic Putin and his friends seek to impress on their fellow Russians that the good old days of rivalry with the Americans are back — though just short of the implication of a Cold War revival. It’s Moscow’s version of “having one’s cake and eating it too.” One wonders if there is anyone in the current White House who understands the subtleties and complications of what is happening?
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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Herb| 10.30.09 @ 9:18AM
No, our current White House denizens haven't a clue about Russia Resurgent or anti-American upsurges anywhere else in the world, for that matter. Fact is, most Russians believe the fall of the USSR was the result of dirty tricks by the 'evil' West, and they may well be interested in if not a rematch, then a rekindled rivalry.
Alan Brooks| 10.31.09 @ 1:22PM
"Fact is, most Russians believe the fall of the USSR was the result of dirty tricks by the 'evil' West "
it WAS dirty tricks by the West, all politics is based on dirty tricks, otherwise Mother Teresa would have been POTUS, and Mother Cabrini vice president; as there is nothing new under the Sun, there is nothing truly virtuous under the Sun.
democracy is bad, Russian autocracy-- Communist or Putinist-- is worse.
-Z- | 11.3.09 @ 1:28PM
Hate to burst your bubble, Herb, but "most Russians" are actually enthusiastic about capitalism and positive foreign relations with the west. The majority of Russian citizens realize that the Soviet model failed, and are not interested in a "rematch" or "rivalry" with the west.
Are they nationalistic, sovereign, and interested in their own political interests? Yes. But so are we. Are they interested in another Cold War? Absolutely not.
Tim| 10.30.09 @ 12:59PM
Russian policy goal:
Having our cake and eating yours too.
Jim O'Brien| 10.31.09 @ 7:22AM
"One wonders if there is anyone in the current White House who understands the subtleties and complications of what is happening?"
Not only are Obama and Congress clueless about modern Russia. Obama and his fellow travelers are attempting to resurrect the USSR in the USA. They have made a lot of progress, killing the rule of law, initiative, innovation, free enterprise, and freedom. While Americans sleep.
-Z- | 11.3.09 @ 1:31PM
Killing the rule of law? So soon we forget the Bush Administration! Remember The Patriot Act? The illegal wire tapping? Torture Memos?
Destroying initiative and innovation? How about No Child Left Behind?
Alan Brooks| 10.31.09 @ 1:29PM
As an aside, now that it has been almost 65 years, we don't owe anything anymore to the Russians for what they did in WWII.
Besides, Stalin killed almost as many of his people as Hitler did.
Alan Brooks| 10.31.09 @ 2:56PM
the role of NATO is similar to before:
keep the Russians out of the West and the Germans down.
Christopher Holland| 11.1.09 @ 1:40AM
I write emails to friends in Russia and anybody who thinks Russia is a superpower, or even a power needs his head examined. They live in poverty, incomes are pitiful and the standard of living is nothing like the west. The Obama people are stupid twice over - they think Russia is a power when it is a third world country and they think that Russians can be trusted. There is no historical evidence ever to support either of these two positions.
Morry Rotenberg| 11.1.09 @ 1:36PM
Russia has been and will be on the losing side of history. Like any other banana republic built on natural resources Russia will gradually fade as its natural gas becomes less valuable (Europe is adopting the natural gas recovery technology that we have used in this country that has given us a 100 year reserve and also going nuclear), its oil runs out, and most importantly its population dwindles (current Russian fertility rate = 1.1, replacement fertility rate = 2.1)
Rep| 11.6.09 @ 2:32AM
Cool story, bro. Now you should squall "Russians coming!" and jump out of the window, in order to make a perfect picture.
Nikolay| 11.6.09 @ 3:17AM
to Rep: +1000
Smarthound| 11.6.09 @ 8:23AM
2 Morry Rotenberg|
There were many smart guys like you and powerful nations that thougt so... Teuton knights, Sweden King Karl, invaders from Litva, Poland, Napoleon, Hitler and many others. They all had a good lesson from russians: "One who comes to us with a sword - finds his death by the sword" (c) grand duke Alexander Nevsky.
Another great Russian Stolypin told: "Give Russia 20 years of rest - and you will not recognize Russia" We've just got out of USSR ruins, 10 years after we suffered losses under american economists-advisors. Wait a bit...
These articles show that there's not much time left to see Russia, that you wont recognize.
PP| 11.6.09 @ 9:26AM
Well, the tricky thing is, that in the brave new world which is coming, may be dwindling population and abundance of natural resources will be advantages, not disadvantages. You consume less and live simple life.
Also it is very funny to read about "aggressiveness" of Russia. Just a decade and half ago the country took away all its troops from Europe and finally even disintegrated, now its own former bits and peaces are biting it all the time. Yet it still remains "aggressive" in Western eyes? What else should it do? probably all Russians should commit collective suicide, and only after that West can become happy.
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