Special Report
Much Ado About Nothing
Tomorrow, Iranians will go to the polls -- but nothing will change.
Tomorrow, Iranians will go to the polls to elect a new president in what has become the most anticipated political event in that country since the Islamic Revolution three decades ago. The results, however, are already a foregone conclusion. Whoever ends up becoming president will have little real power -- and even less influence over Iran's geostrategic direction.
The reason has everything to do with the country's convoluted power structure. On paper, the Islamic Republic possesses all the attributes of a pluralistic government, endowed with an independent legislature, an active judiciary, and a robust executive branch. In reality, however, these secular organs are overlaid by a mosaic of religious institutions which dictates its direction in both foreign and domestic affairs.
These entities have had a profound influence over the presidential playing field. As of mid-May, there were over 400 candidates of various ideological persuasions and political stripes. Today, there are just four -- incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; conservative challenger Mohsen Rezai, onetime commander of Iran's feared Revolutionary Guard; former parliamentary speaker Mehdi Karroubi; and Mir Hossein Moussavi, the charismatic politician who served as Iran's prime minister from 1981 to 1989. The rest were disqualified by Iran's powerful Guardian Council, a government oversight body tasked with enforcing adherence to "revolutionary" principles. The results are telling; whether "conservative" or "reformist," the remaining contenders for Iran's top political post have been cleared by Iran's clerical elite as conforming to the regime's foundational principles.
Chief among these is the idea of "exporting the revolution." That priority, extolled by regime founder Ruhollah Khomeini and enshrined in the country's 1979 constitution, commits Iran to the "struggle to extend the supremacy of God’s Law in the world." The results are painfully evident; as the latest edition of the State Department's Country Reports on Terrorism outlines, Iran remains "the most active state sponsor of terrorism," responsible for violence and instability that has thwarted "international efforts to promote peace, threatened economic stability in the Gulf, and undermined the growth of democracy."
Similarly, the Islamic Republic cannot be expected to change course on its nuclear program. Over the past two decades, and especially since September 11, atomic acquisition has become something of an article of faith among Iran's ayatollahs -- a way to preempt preemption by the United States, consolidate domestic power, and garner greater international prestige. It is also an enormously popular domestic enterprise; a 2008 poll by worldpublicopinion.org found that fully 81 percent of Iranians surveyed believed it was "very important" for their country to master nuclear technology.
Iran's presidential contenders understand this very well, and have thrown their weight behind their government's atomic project. "I do not think any government will dare to take a step back in this regard, since people will question the decision," Moussavi, Ahmadinejad's main challenger, told supporters in a speech back in April. "Given the long-term interest, we are obliged not to back down on this or other similar issues."
Indeed, even if Ahmadinejad or one of his rivals were to have a change of heart about the prudence of nuclear acquisition, he would be powerless to do anything about it. Iran's Supreme Leader, and not its president, is the country's ultimate arbiter of foreign policy and national security -- including the regime's strategic arsenal. The Iranian president may be a cheerleader for the regime's atomic effort, but he is not a driver of it.
Last year, while still on the campaign trail, then-candidate Obama defended plans for dialogue with Iran by reassuring critics that it would not involve the Iranian president, who is largely irrelevant in policy terms. Yet today, his administration's focus on engagement with the Islamic Republic has left it inclined to interpret a changing of the presidential guard in Tehran as a sign of newfound moderation -- and a signal that its outreach is reaping real dividends. That could end up being a potentially fatal misreading of Iranian politics, in which the only clear and consistent winner is the regime itself.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (23) | Leave a comment
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Eric Damon| 6.11.09 @ 7:01AM
It amazes me how the press is covering the upcoming Iranian election as if they are free, fair, and will have any real consequences. The Guardian's Council picks the candidates and the Supreme Leader makes the real decisions, so the president is basically irrelevant. Whomever wins the election is simply the public face of the nation's rulers and is going to do their bidding regardless of their public rhetoric. Ahmadenijad has done nothing that the rulers disagree with and neither will the winner of this election, and to pretend otherwise is a fool's errand. No matter the winner we can expect the same actions with maybe more soothing words, but the policies of the Iranian regime are not going to change.
Faithsome| 6.11.09 @ 9:17AM
Its in the 'enemies' interests to 'keep' Iran in a position of 'lowly'.
Why
FOR SOME REASON MAN CAN ONLY
FUNCTION WHEN HE HAS SOMEONE OR SOMETHING THAT MAKES HIM 'ANGRY'
OTHERWISE SURELY WE WOULD BE ONLY TO HAPPY TO HELP EACH OTHERS LACK' OF!
L. Ross| 6.11.09 @ 12:44PM
Faithsome:
Huh? Is this some kind of blank verse haiku? Seriously, WTF?
Old Texican| 6.11.09 @ 2:04PM
Ilan
To the point! Thank you!
What happens in Iran is irrelevant. What is happening HERE! is the most important thing on earth.
We could squash Iran by simply blockading refined product to them, (uh gasoline and diesel).
Hmmmmm! Come to think of it, embargoing refined products ...as well as crude oil and coal...could squash the lying communists in DC.
OK, sir, you have research capability. Would it be illegal for the oilcompanies/coal companies to simply decide to quit sending product?
Best regards
Pingback| 6.11.09 @ 4:25PM
The American Spectator : Much Ado About Nothing | Iran Today links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
fathsome| 6.11.09 @ 5:55PM
Mr Ross,
Wake up to the reality of the venom that america seems to leave behind in its wake.
Denise-Mary| 6.11.09 @ 9:42PM
fathsom - presumably an aka of "Faithsome," above - want to clarify your use of "venom?" I don't care to debate or challenge other posters until terms have been defined. If you will kindly define "venom," and provide examples of same, perhaps others might then respond to your post.
Faithsome| 6.12.09 @ 5:30AM
Denise-Mary
Gladly will I define venom.
1. Assuming
2. Acting on that assumption
3. And once actng upon that assumption assuming its position of power be definition of the fact that you have assumed in the fist place.
America has assumed it is the moral standard for us all.
America assumed it had all authority to police us all
We the 'on-lookers' watching the mess you made in chilli, vietnam, cuba, iraq,etc., would like you to understand that when you assume to know it all, have it all, and then pressume we 'the on-lookers' want it all you have got it wrong.
Clean up from where you have been before you lead us all into yet more of your desire to rule both us all and the universe.
Thank you Denise Mary
Have a nice day.
NEVER ASSUME YOU KNOW EVERYTHING, HAVE EVERYTHING, NEED EVERYTHING, DESERVE EVERYTHING, OR ARE EVERYTHING.
THATS THE LORDS JOB not yours
As you all so readily in America tell us all.
William| 6.12.09 @ 7:03AM
Good point faithsome. Where this nation has gone since the liberal social revolution has made this nation a decaying, immoral, and greedy society, the standard that the US once stood up to just does not exist anymore. And islamic nations and others have used this decay as their reasoning to terrorize us. We as a nation have allowed other nations to loathe us instead of look up to us. If we cannot turn back the clock to the way it was prior to the 1950s then the US cannot accept the role as world leader anymore. Thanks libs for making this nation a has-been society
Pingback| 6.16.09 @ 12:03PM
Interesting Times in Tehran | America Watches Obama links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
vertio| 4.22.10 @ 12:51AM
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