There was an extremely funny article in the Financial Times a few days ago, and I’m saying “funny,” rather than asinine. It was about how pollsters were having a hard time finding any “shy” Trump supporters. If you think about that statement, it appears to be idiotic. Think about it. It’s like saying that you couldn’t find someone in the witness relocation program on Facebook. Douglas Schwartz from Quinnipiac said that when you go to the rallies, the supporters don’t seem to be “shy.” Trust me, I’m probably not going to an Air Supply concert, but I just might have them on my playlist. He also said that the Trump “shy voter” theory was proven wrong in the primaries. Was it really, Sherlock? Most voters don’t vote in the primaries. So how exactly was it proven wrong?
Don’t you find it coincidental that when Mr. Trump “behaves,” his polls go up, and when he “misbehaves” his polls go down? Forget about the Bradley effect. Forget about Israel’s last elections. Forget all recent polling failures, including Hillary’s in the Democratic primaries in Michigan. Just take those out of the equation, as the FT article pretty much did, and look at Brexit. The polling was off for one simple reason and one reason only. People were terrified to outwardly go against public opinion. Every poll shows that most Americans don’t care about or fear climate change. But, of course, that’s a poll you rarely see. What people think about internally and what they admit to publicly are two very different things. Sure, I care about starving kids in Africa, and about those girls in Boko Haram. Sure, I care about that lion that was killed by that American hunter. But do people really care? Do your own poll and ask ten people, tomorrow, if they remember the lion’s name that was killed.
People will tell you anything they think you want to hear. That’s human nature. It’s called being a survivalist. I live in L.A. I write about this stuff. You don’t see me wearing a “make America great” hat, and, yes, I do own one. I like the idea of not having my tires slashed or being assaulted physically or verbally. Every time I’m asked about this election, and whom I’m voting for, I carefully measure the person who is asking. Imagine the customers at the bank, at the diner, at the barbershop who won’t discuss their political thoughts or feelings. Do you think that they are willing to verbalize their true feelings in public or on the phone? Of course not. Why? Because of fear of persecution and public scorn. Everyone wants to feel accepted. So, yeah, it’s easier to say that “I’m not voting for him” than to say “I am.” Just keep in mind that voting booths do offer the privacy and anonymity needed. Trust me, the exit polling will be very different than the actual voting. Yes, the pollsters will find this shocking too.
Continue living in that bubble, because that’s what it is, one big poll bubble. But, hey, maybe I’m wrong, and I’m living in my own, wishful thinking, poll bubble. Maybe I’m misinterpreting people’s fears and insecurities about the direction in which our nation is heading. Maybe Tim Kaine is correct in saying that we are safer than we’ve ever been and that life is great. Iran’s nuclear program has ended, the Cubs will win the World Series, and the Browns will win the Super Bowl. And, no, he didn’t actually say those last two but he might as well have. He was like a demented Chatty Cathy doll. I guess the apple didn’t fall far from the Democrat tree.
So, maybe my eyes and ears fail me, maybe I’m wrong, and people are being honest when asked who they are voting for. Or, maybe just maybe, the media has scared the hell out of the honest citizen so badly that he will say anything to just get the pollster off the phone. There was an old joke that went like this: if you asked a girl how many men she slept with, you would multiply that number by three, and if you asked a guy, you divide that number by two. That’s how I look at this election, and this polling. Trust nothing till the final vote is counted. I also look at the word “shy” voter as a complete insult to the “shy” voter. How about the browbeaten, how about the coerced, or the intimidated? The media is no different than the mob. Threatening witnesses into not testifying, and not voting, maybe you won’t be able to find that “shy” person on Facebook, since they are in the voter witness relocation program. But just because you can’t find them, doesn’t mean they don’t exist.