Conn Carroll reports that Rep. Paul Ryan will propose a health care plan as a replacement for Obamacare in a “major address” on Tuesday. 

Although no details are forthcoming yet, Carroll flags a line from a recent Budget Committee publication — “And for all Americans, it means making health insurance more portable and more affordable by personalizing the tax credit for health insurance” — that makes it sound as though the reform proposal won’t be too far from the McCain 2008 plan for scrapping the deduction for employer-provided health insurance and replacing it with an individual health care tax credit. 

Here are a few predictions: 1. Whatever Ryan proposes will become the GOP’s baseline stance on health care; suggesting repeal of Obamacare without having proposed a replacement will become unconservative. 2. Ryan’ proposed reform will represent a plausible outline for reforming U.S. health care, even if some details are awry. 3. Everyone left of David Brooks will seize on some eminently fixable flaw in Ryan’s plan, and conclude base on that alone that Ryan is a fraud and just wants poor people to suffer.