Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. was clear yesterday at his first press conference after withdrawing from the presidential race. Three major issues compelled him to leave the Democratic Party and endorse Donald Trump for president: “Free speech, the war in Ukraine, and the war on our children.”
Trump, he explained, has “adopted these issues as his own to the point where he has asked to enlist me in his administration.”
Eight years is a long time to endure damage to America and Americans at the hands of hyper-progressive nonsense.
The party two of his grandfathers helped build has become “the party of war, censorship, corruption, big pharma, big tech, big money,” Kennedy said. History will judge the Ukraine war as an Obama and Biden liability. It was initiated by a US-engineered coup in 2014, perpetuated by deliberately forestalling peace talks two years ago and costing the lives of 600,000 soldiers, needlessly. “Ukraine” is a victim of this war, and it’s a victim of the West,” he said.
Now that the much-anticipated event has occurred, one question that needs to be asked is: Will RFK Jr.’s exit and endorsement actually benefit the former president and how much?
Surveys are clear that most of Trump’s third-party defectors have been picking Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on test ballots where there are more choices. Polls show that a Kennedy withdrawal would benefit Trump. And even if it turns out that the numbers are not substantial (and no one knows for certain) small margins have ended up deciding recent presidential elections.
One truth that is clear from the national NBC News poll is that Republicans have a stronger preference for Kennedy than Democrats. In July, Kennedy held net-positive ratings from Republicans (+11), while he was negative among independents (-18) and Democrats (-38). Republican voters clearly view RFK Jr. more positively.
Moreover, Kennedy attracts almost all of Trump’s third-party defectors. July’s national NBC News poll also shows how the ballot changes from one with just the two major nominees to an expanded ballot that includes Kennedy.
When third-party candidates are included in polls, Trump’s lead is 3 points, 40 percent to 37 percent, with Kennedy getting 10 percent, Jill Stein (Green Party) 3 percent, Chase Olive (Libertarian) 2 percent, and Cornel West 1 percent.
In that six-way ballot, Trump kept 87 percent of the voters who backed him in a head-to-head contest, while 10 percent of his voters went to Kennedy, 1 percent went to Stein and 1 percent went to West.
Over the past 72 hours, things have changed in the landscape of national politics. Kamala Harris’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have seen a reversal among leading bookmakers.
Perhaps the most important disclosure came August 10th when Polymarket, often described as the “world’s biggest prediction market,” forecast that Harris would receive 52 percent of the presidential election vote against the former president’s 45 percent.
As of 5 a.m. ET on August 21, Trump had regained the lead, with 52 percent of support versus Harris’s 47 percent.
A crucial ingredient in the electoral mix mentioned above is the Independent vote. The latter play a major role in these numbers. Their numbers have continued to rise, tying a high of 43 percent last year, according to a Gallup telephone survey. (Democrats and Republicans by contrast each reflect only a 27 percent constituency.)
With such numbers involved, the undecided figure can amount to enough votes to make a difference in a close race as in 2020 and what appears to be shaping up in 2024.
From the results above, it still looks like two factors are in play. Harris’s star has started to diminish the more Americans learn who she actually is and what that would mean for them personally and America generally, and with RFK Jr. on board, Trump’s chances are enhanced measurably.
But the real issue is twofold: Can Trump use RFK Jr. effectively, and will Trump tone down the hyperbole and rhetoric so as to appeal to not only RFK Jr.’s supporters (whose interests are not necessarily those of Trump’s), but that significant contingent of as yet undecided independent voters?
If Trump’s numbers continue to edge upwards or stabilize with RFK Jr.’s support the election in November is, perhaps at this point, Trump’s to lose — as it seemed for a time after the assassination attempt and before Biden withdrew from the race.
I say it this way because a nationally televised debate and subsequent election is approaching. And Trump and his team (including RFK Jr.) need a demeanor in speech and public persona that is inviting to RFK Jr. ‘s supporters and those undecided independents. (The ones Oprah Winfrey is in overdrive attempting to “hard sell” into Harris’s camp.)
We all (and this includes Donald Trump) need to understand that, despite what Trump has said, Harris is not dumb. She has already demonstrated an impressive ability to use (or allow) the media to create a national image for her.
The U.S. media has shown that it cannot be neutral in this election, or in any matter concerning Donald Trump (and his supporters). It continues to fawn over Kamala Harris while the latter steadfastly refuses to sit for interviews or stand for press conferences.
Time magazine is a case in point. Its latest issue features a dramatic portrait of Kamala Harris on the cover bearing the engaging caption “Her Moment.” The magazine offered minimal substance on Harris’s performance as vice president. But it gushed a fountain of ink alluding to the virtual “carnival” atmosphere which accompanies Harris’s political events.
And in an almost laughable fashion the interviewer attempted to place Harris’s public performance on the same level with last year’s “blockbuster summer for women of Barbie, Beyoncé, and Swift.” The left’s hypocrisy knows no limits.
Time also invited political support from Senator Cory Booker, who invoked Star Wars characters to argue for Harris. “She has gone,” he said, “from being a Padawan to a Jedi master.” Apparently “the force” was not with her when it came to helping working class Americans (especially women she is supposed to care so much about) survive some of the worst inflation the U.S. has experienced in decades.
It should be noted that Time also interviewed Trump for a cover story in April, but it didn’t look like Kamala’s. The former president’s was an 83-minute read, while the ridiculous post interview fact checking took at least 20 minutes to get through.
Trump was virtually interrogated about his prosecutions, the January 6 ‘insurrection,’ his “dictator for a day” joke. The inquisition was ended with questions about the possibility of right-wing violence if Trump loses the election. Clearly, the intent of the interview was to provoke the former president.
Americans are going to only hear and see what they are shown through the lens of the media. Trump needs to present a countervailing force and image of stability and confidence (not arrogance). In other words, he must remain calm and responsive, not agitated and reactive. With those optics, Trump will prevail.
Many people want to vote for Trump because of the practical, American common sense he espouses (whether they admit it publicly in polls or not). The American public (which includes Republican and Independent voters) demonstrated that in 2016 and 2020.
Let us hope Trump and his advisors (including RFK Jr. and his team) are savvy enough to understand this. Eight years is a long time to endure damage to America and Americans at the hands of hyper-progressive nonsense from two people who should never be allowed anywhere near 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
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