Last week, the Israeli government warned President Biden that the new U.S. approach to Iran, seeking to revive former president Obama’s 2015 nuclear weapons deal with the ayatollahs, is exceedingly dangerous. The Israelis warn of a “less for less” deal in which we would offer Iran some relief from our economic sanctions in return for some reduction in their development of nuclear weapons.
To understand how bad this deal or any other deal to revive the Obama agreement would be, we have to remind ourselves about the agreement and what has happened so far.
The 2015 deal, which was supposed to last ten years, provided that U.S. and UN economic sanctions against Iran would be terminated. Iran, in return, would allow inspection of its nuclear sites by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, wouldn’t exceed in running more than a certain number of uranium enrichment centrifuges or enrich uranium past the 3.67 percent level, or build or operate heavy water nuclear plants. Disagreements were supposed to be resolved by arbitration.
The defects in the 2015 deal were obvious from the start. Iran wouldn’t allow IAEA inspection of several sites at which nuclear weapons research — such as the development of nuclear bomb triggers — was continuing. The Iranians were, in secret, also operating enrichment centrifuges to enrich uranium to higher levels.
Any agreements on nuclear weapons were, in past administrations, submitted to the U.S. Senate for ratification. Obama and the other members of the “P5+1” group — Germany, France, the UK, Russia, and China — submitted it to the UN Security Council which “ratified” it instead.
Former president Trump, correctly calling the 2015 deal the worst ever, revoked the 2015 deal in 2018. Trump also imposed his “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions on Iran, bringing its economy to its knees for a time. That has since been undercut by Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, which has enabled the Iranian economy to recover if not flourish.
Meanwhile, Iran’s violations of the deal — before and after 2018 — have reportedly brought them to within a month of enriching enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon.
In the 2020 campaign, Biden promised to revive the deal and has pursued it like a spoiled child who wants a new toy because someone told him he couldn’t have it.
The latest negotiations — conducted through the offices of the P5+1 nations — have been thwarted by Iranian recalcitrance. Iran has “elected” a new President Mohammed Rahimi who, as other such presidents have been, is a tool of Iran’s “supreme leader” Ayatollah Khamanei. Iran has insisted that the U.S. remove all economic sanctions before Iran does anything to become compliant with the 2015 deal.
Iran insists that its nuclear program has always been with peaceful intent. But, as the 2018 Israeli revelation of tens of thousands of documents that Israeli intelligence swiped from an Iranian facility proved, Iran has always been lying while doing its utmost to develop nuclear weapons. Iran’s “Project Ahmad” was, and is, Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Israel’s warning is directed at the reportedly new approach to revival of the deal based on the “less for less” approach. U.S. officials have reportedly confirmed the new approach, saying that it was just “brainstorming.” It should go no further.
Negotiations with Iran are supposed to resume today. The “less for less” approach would offer relief from some or most U.S. sanctions in return for some lessening of Iran’s bomb development. In effect, it would reward Iran for its violations of the agreement and not reduce the time for it to build a nuclear weapon which, as noted above, is probably now a month or less.
Any new deal would also reward Iran for its other aggression around the Middle East, such as its sponsorship of Shiite militias in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and other nations. Lebanon’s Hizballah — which has tens of thousands of missiles that can be launched at Israel at any time — is an Iranian satrapy.
Biden’s apparent willingness to trust Iran is anti-historical and counter-factual. Iran has never, since the ayatollahs’ regime came to power in 1979, lived up to its obligations under any diplomatic deal. Nevertheless, Biden wants a new deal with Iran that will trust it not to develop nuclear weapons.
Israel has reportedly increased its military budget by about $1.4 billion to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat. Last week Israel’s new Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, said, “We hope the world does not blink, but if it does, we do not intend to.”
Were Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear sites, a huge war would be ignited that could spread beyond the Middle East. By completing a new nuclear weapons deal with Iran, Biden would remove diplomatic options for both Israel and America.
Biden, like all of his predecessors going back to George H.W. Bush, has promised that Iran would not be permitted to develop or otherwise obtain nuclear weapons. Bush 41 also said that if Iran had nuclear weapons it could ignite World War 3.
Biden’s, and his administration’s, sole desire has been to undo everything Trump did. So far, they have managed to open our borders, cause rising inflation by spending wildly, and created the debacle of the Afghanistan withdrawal which left hundreds of Americans behind. One disaster follows another.
Despite the facts and the obvious danger to our national security, Trump’s revocation of the 2015 Obama deal with Iran is no exception to Biden’s effort to undo everything Trump did. If he succeeds in reviving the 2015 Obama nuclear weapons deal, Israel will have no choice but to use military force to stop Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. Israel is a small nation that could literally be wiped out by the detonation of a single nuclear weapon in a major city.
When — not if — a major war ensues from Biden’s revival of the Obama deal, tens of thousands will die unnecessary deaths. It will be, as Churchill wrote of World War Two, a war that was totally preventable. It will be Joe Biden’s war.
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