The seemingly distant war in Ukraine has arrived on Moscow residents’ doorsteps. Ukraine’s second drone strike this week on the refinery in southeast Moscow damaged the facility severely enough to shut down operations of the largest refinery in the region. The strikes are part of a broader campaign reaching deep into Russia, with a specific focus on oil refineries, fuel depots, and processing plants.
The Moscow refinery strike, launched from more than 300 miles away, illustrates the growing reach of Kyiv’s long-range drone capabilities. Ukraine’s renewed effort to take the war into Russia itself is tactically important, of course, but it also signals that the long-heralded age of drone warfare is no longer a distant future.
Drones have increasingly moved from the margins of modern warfare to its center. Before Russia’s 2022 invasion, Ukrainian drone production was “virtually nonexistent.” In 2025, Ukraine planned to purchase 4.5 million first-person view (FPV) drones almost entirely from Ukrainian manufacturers.
The battlefields of Eastern Europe already reflect the impact of drones on modern war doctrine. Thousands of cheap FPV drones now fly daily along Ukraine’s front, making even the slightest movement by armor and infantry across front lines increasingly costly and dangerous. One French report estimates that drone-inflicted casualties rose from less than 10 percent of the total in 2022 to as much as 80 percent last year.
Beyond Ukraine, kamikaze drone use has skyrocketed in military conflicts across the globe. Military doctrine has shifted to account for these developments as seen from the conflict in Sudan to the recent U.S.–Iran war, in which one-way drone tactics saw heavy use from both sides. For the United States, the conflict marked the first combat use of its new LUCAS attack drone designed for one-way missions.
The rise of drone warfare is in part caused by low production costs. Many FPV drones used by Ukraine can run as little as $500 a unit, including their explosive payloads. The target may be a tank, an artillery piece, an advanced radar system, or an oil facility worth many, many times that amount.
The appeal is obvious and brutal. Drone warfare allows weaker forces to impose costs on stronger opponents by sidestepping a head-to-head strength contest. Instead of Ukraine matching Russia missile for missile and tank for tank, they blow up millions of dollars in equipment for a fraction of the cost.
The Ukrainian drone incursions into Russia targeting civilian infrastructure beyond the battlefield prove that the same weapon that can harass tanks and infantry is fully capable of disrupting airports, refineries, ports, data centers, and mass public gatherings. The vulnerability exposed by those strikes is not unique to Russia, and the rest of the world must reckon with that.
The White House has already acknowledged as much, warning last year that criminals and hostile foreign actors have intensified their weaponization and use of drones, and that “Mass gatherings are vulnerable to disruptions and threats” by drones. The Federal Aviation Administration likewise noted that airports can deploy detection systems like radar and other sensors, but tools that disrupt or disable drones remain restricted to the federal government.
Congress in September introduced legislation that would expand countermeasures and mitigation systems to airports across the country, but no movement has been made since it left the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee last year.
The gap between detection and defense available to private operators and non-federal actors is fueling a growing counter-drone market. Rising demand for radars, jammers, and other systems is drawing billions in investment from the energy, shipping, and data center sectors to counterdrone firms to close that gap. Analysts estimate the new market to currently be worth about $3 billion, with growth of around 20 percent each year.
The developments in drone use sparked by conflicts like Ukraine and the U.S.–Iran war will force expensive consequences beyond just the military sector. A weapon that costs hundreds of dollars can now threaten airports, energy infrastructure, and supply chains across the globe. The rest of the world will have to price in what that means.
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