All year the corporate media has produced story after story telling us that Latino voters are suffering buyer’s remorse after voting for President Trump and Republicans in 2024. This, we are told, is due to the failure of the GOP to drive down prices and defeat inflation. This seems plausible, but California’s gubernatorial primary produced no evidence that it is actually true. Indeed, it appears that it was support from Latino voters that enabled Republican Steve Hilton to emerge as one of the top two finishers who will face off in the November general election. Steve Hilton will face Democrat Xavier Becerra, who has generated surprisingly flaccid support among Latino voters.
This doesn’t mean Hilton will defeat Becerra in this Democratic state, but his performance among Latinos suggests that GOP performance in the midterms will be stronger than the legacy media would have us believe. According to a report in the Daily Torch, Fresno County is 55 percent Latino, yet Hilton beat Becerra by 14 points. Hilton also flipped Tulare County, which is nearly 70 percent Latino, winning it by 17 percentage points. In Madera County, which is 60 percent Latino, Hilton beat Becerra by 23 points. And it gets better. Throughout California, Hilton doubled the number of votes received by Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Republican challenger in the 2022 primary, while Becerra garnered 1.4 million fewer votes than Gov. Newsom.
Hilton is the first Republican who might have a genuine chance to become the Golden State’s chief executive since the departure of the “Governator.”
But the numbers that really should encourage Republicans are the results in large counties with a lot of Latino voters. In San Bernardino County the electorate is more than 53 percent Latino and Becerra only managed to eke out 26.1 percent of the vote while Hilton and fellow Republican Chad Bianco received 45.9 percent combined. Riverside County is over 50 percent Latino and Becerra received 27.2 percent while Hilton and Bianco received 47.7 percent combined. Obviously, Chad Bianco isn’t going to be on the ballot in November, so it’s reasonable to assume that most of Bianco’s votes will go to Hilton, including all of those allegedly disillusioned Latino voters who “unexpectedly” cast their ballots for him. Returning to the Daily Torch:
What does this data show? Hilton’s wide wins against Becerra compared to the way Newsom secured votes in 2022 reflects two stories. Hilton made significant inroads among rural voters, notably voters from agricultural and ranch counties with heavy Latino populations. His appeal there was striking, with Hilton flipping several inland counties by wide double margins. Hilton also appealed to a portion of wealthy urbanites, winning several coastal counties that went to Newsom in 2022.
Pardon? Say what? Hilton successfully flipped several highly-educated, coastal, and urbanized counties that traditionally vote Democrat. Yes. You read that correctly, He won a number of counties with large populations of educated “elites,” including San Luis Obispo (28.9 percent to 24.1 percent), Ventura (30.4 percent to 28.1 percent), Orange (36.2 percent to 24.1 percent), and San Diego (29.9 percent to 27.4 percent) counties. These numbers represent huge swings from Democrat to Republican: San Luis Obispo (37 points), Ventura (38 points), Orange (35 points), San Diego (32 points). These large shifts across the state suggest that the voters might actually be willing vote for Republican House candidates in the upcoming midterms.
All the talk of a 2026 “blue wave” notwithstanding, there just aren’t very many competitive districts in play in November. According to the Cook Political Report there are only 18 “toss-ups” out of 435 House seats that are theoretically up for grabs in the midterms. That is to say the Republicans hold 190 “safe” seats, 17 likely GOP seats and 5 that “lean” Republican. The Democrats hold 182 “safe” seats, 11 likely Democrat seats and 12 that “lean” Democrat. Thus, to retake the House, the Democrats must win 13 of the 18 toss-up seats. To retain their House majority the GOP would have to win six of the toss-ups. Thus, the primary results in California offer real hope for the GOP. The Hill reports that the GOP House campaign chair said,
I’m very confident we’re going to hold the House. In fact, I think we’ll pick up seats. And the reason is, the map favors Republicans, and I was saying this a year ago before redistricting and all that that went on. And I think, with redistricting, gives us a little more of an edge on the map. The seats that are up for grabs — there’s very few — favor Republicans. I mean, 435 seats, less than 30 are going to determine the majority, but in those 30 we’re poised to win.
All of which brings us back to the party line about Latino voters and buyer’s remorse. Has the failure of President Trump and the Republicans to fix the economy with a handful of pixy dust driven Latino voters back into the arms of the Democratic Party — the people who created the cost of living crisis to begin with? California’s gubernatorial primary has produced no evidence to support that claim. To the contrary, the support from Latino voters for Republican Steve Hilton suggests the opposite. Hilton is the first Republican who might have a genuine chance to become the Golden State’s chief executive since the departure of the fabled “Governator.” Despite what their Democrat “leaders” obviously believe, Latinos just aren’t that stupid.
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