Texas Sen. John Cornyn was denied renomination last night by a wide margin. In a bitter runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, whom Cornyn lambasted as scandal-ridden and likely to lose to Democratic nominee James Talarico, the incumbent appears to have lost by about 28 percentage points. Cornyn carried just two of Texas’s 254 counties: Travis, home to the state capital of Austin and one of the state’s most liberal redoubts, and Kenedy, which cast eight votes in total. Much political hay has been made about the continued might of President Donald Trump within the GOP, and his endorsement of Paxton surely helped him pad his numbers. But an underrated angle is why Cornyn ended up in this situation in the first place.
Incumbent senators who have been elected in their own right almost never lose renomination. Prior to 2026, the most recent time one did was 2012, when GOP Sen. Richard Lugar lost his primary election. Of course, Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy was ousted in the GOP primary just last week, but there was a glaringly obvious reason for that: he had voted to impeach Trump in 2021. It wasn’t surprising, or at least, it shouldn’t have been, that Trump endorsed one of his challengers, Rep. Julia Letlow. Cornyn was guilty of no such thing. In fact, Trump appeared to be preparing to endorse him just months ago, before pulling back at the last second after outcry from the GOP grassroots.
While Trump’s endorsement against him added insult to injury, what ultimately sank Cornyn was his poor relationship with the Republican base. The inciting incident long predates Paxton’s grudge match against the longtime GOP politician. After being reelected in 2020, Cornyn joined with Democratic Sens. Chris Murphy and Kyrsten Sinema to be the lead Republican on a bill to expand so-called “red flag” gun control laws. The idea behind these laws is that a judge can order firearms seized from a person determined to be a threat to themselves or others. Critics note that such laws strip gun owners of their rights without traditional due process protections. As the Texas Tribune said at the time, “[M]ore than any other senator, Cornyn is responsible for shepherding” the bill through the chamber. Because of his support, the bill got the support needed to overcome the Senate filibuster and was signed into law by then-President Joe Biden.
The reaction from the GOP base to Cornyn joining with gun control zealots like Murphy was immediate and visceral. At the Texas GOP convention that year, Cornyn was roundly booed. A poll from the University of Texas found that the percentage of Texans who disapproved of Cornyn’s job performance spiked by over 10 percentage points, a shift that was strongest amongst Republicans.
While Cornyn had previously posted stellar marks among gun rights groups, trust in him was shattered. While Trump’s endorsement of Paxton was doubtless his most high-profile, he also picked up critical early support from Gun Owners for America. The National Rifle Association, which had given Cornyn high marks and endorsed him in previous races, declined to back him.
No doubt Paxton’s personal sins are many. But Cornyn, evidently, was in no position to cast the first stone. It was simple arrogance to think that he could go along with the gun control priorities of Democrats and the Biden administration, and have Texas voters forget about it by the time that he had to face them again.
“I am the punishment of God. If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you” is a quote often attributed to Genghis Khan, though its historicity is questionable. Whatever else Paxton is or isn’t, it’s clear his defenestration of Cornyn is a punishment inflicted on the GOP establishment for its pride and hubris. Whether the rest of his colleagues will get the message remains to be seen.
