President Trump stated that the Iran war was almost over and that an agreement had been reached, subject to further negotiation and definition.
He wrote on Truth Social that,
An agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran and various other countries as listed … Final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.
The key elements are that Iran would surrender its nuclear weapons program and its stockpile of enriched uranium. Whatever assurances the ayatollahs will deliver, they will be lying.
Mr. Trump has backed himself into a corner. He has previously said that he would only accept the Iranians’ unconditional surrender.
Of course, Mr. Trump has said things like that over the past eight weeks of war and they have not turned out to be correct. Whatever the outcome this time, Mr. Trump’s actions will define his presidency.
The cease-fire in name only (CFINO) has gone on since about April 8. One proposal would extend it for another 60 days and Mr. Trump doesn’t seem to be running out of patience with the ayatollahs’ regime.
Iran has continued to launch drones and missiles at its neighbors. Some, like the United Arab Emirates, have responded with their own counter-attacks. Most have not. The UAE is building a pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz which is nearly completed. Saudi Arabia already has completed one that can handle seven million barrels of oil a day.
The Iranians have kept a lock on the Strait of Hormuz as have we with our blockade of Iranian ports. We have seized several Iranian ships as far away as the Indian Ocean. There is no relief in sight from the closure of the Strait despite Mr. Trump’s promise to reopen it via “Operation Freedom” which has not yet begun. A negotiated reopening will greatly ease Middle Eastern trade, including oil.
For example, some ships are paying Iranian “tolls” to get out of the Strait. According to the Jerusalem Post, “Between April 18 and May 6, fewer than 60 ships made it through, according to unpublished analysis by U.S. firm SynMax Intelligence. Before the war, some 120 to 140 ships traversed the strait on a typical day, about half of them oil tankers.”
In the “negotiations” between the U.S. and Iran — which are mostly conducted through third parties — diplomacy has been exhausted. Nothing has progressed farther than it stood at the outset. Iran refuses to compromise on their nuclear program and so do we. Our demand that they cease nuclear research and uranium enrichment has never been accepted by the ayatollahs and will never be. Similarly, the ayatollahs won’t surrender their highly-enriched uranium stockpile. They want to keep up their nuclear program because they want to use nuclear weapons on Israel, Europe, and the United States. Those desires come from a religious requirement.
The ayatollahs are Shiite “Twelvers.” To them, the creation of an apocalypse is a career goal because to do so, they believe, will cause the return of the “hidden” Twelfth Imam who will bring about an Islamic paradise on earth. It also means, to them, the end of Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Hindus, and any other unbelievers in Islam.
If Iran gets nuclear weapons, it will use them. It’s as simple as that.
If you want to judge how serious Iran is you should take a lesson from the $58 million bounty they put on Mr. Trump’s head last week. There have been Iranian plots to kill Mr. Trump’s children including a recent one to kill Ivanka Trump.
Iran still has approximately half of their ballistic missile and drone capabilities. In order to knock them out, we and the Israelis would have to engage in more months of precision bombing of Iranian sites and we probably still won’t be able to knock them out entirely depending on how good our — and the Israeli — intelligence is.
Is Mr. Trump prepared for this sort of war with no end in sight? That’s very doubtful. Will he choose to do so while the congressional debate goes on about the War Powers Resolution? Will Speaker Mike Johnson be able to hold the line against another resolution ending Mr. Trump’s authority to conduct the war? That’s not a certainty with Republicans leaking over to the Dem side as they are in the Senate.
A Supreme Court fight on the constitutionality of the War Powers Resolution may result in a loss and a bigger loss in the mid-term elections.
Mr. Trump has backed himself into a corner. He has previously said that he would only accept the Iranians’ unconditional surrender.
The president has, so far, been talked out of hitting Iran again by our Middle East “allies” such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. To go against their counsel would risk a split among them. They fear Iran but, even more so, they fear American irresolution.
Iran will never surrender their nuclear weapons program peacefully. What’s more, the ayatollahs will never surrender it while their regime stands. For that program to end, the regime must be thrown onto the ash heap of history.
Mr. Trump must know this. So why is he continuing negotiations with these liars?
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