Israel announced on Saturday that it has achieved air superiority over Iran from its western border to Tehran while Iranian government-backed demonstrators are still chanting “death to America.”
It’s what some would describe as Iran’s “FAFO” moment. But this war is, as I’ve written elsewhere, is too serious to be referred to that way. It is a fight to the finish which Israel must win.
There can be no deal with Iran that doesn’t include the destruction of all its nuclear facilities and regime change in Tehran.
U.S. forces are already engaged in protecting Israel from Iranian missiles. Our two destroyers there can add a bit to Israel’s “Iron Dome” protections. If Israel needs our further engagement, we cannot hesitate to give it.
To win the war, the Israelis have to not only destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, they have to end the ayatollahs’ regime. Without the latter, there can be no lasting peace in the Middle East or anywhere else.
The Israeli attacks on Thursday came on the 61st day of President Trump’s 60-day deadline for Iran to reach an agreement with the U.S. to block it from obtaining nuclear weapons. Which means, of course, that the Israelis had intelligence that Iran was about to produce and deploy one or more nuclear weapons.
As the Wall Street Journal described in a superb editorial on Saturday, the Israeli attacks were the culmination of a number of massive Iranian miscalculations. They thought they could stall and bluff their way past Trump’s demands for an agreement. They were wrong.
The Israelis have already reportedly destroyed much of Iran’s nuclear capability and many of their ballistic missiles. Hundreds of other missiles — including ballistic missiles — have been launched on Israel, attempting to kill Israeli civilians. This is typical of Iran and its proxies, Hamas, Hizballah, and the Houthis. They are dedicated to terrorizing civilians, not hitting military targets. The Israeli government has kept its people in their bomb shelters and may continue to do so.
The biggest problem that the Israeli’s have is the essential destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons site at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The penetrator bombs that Trump has gladly supplied the Israelis may be able to reach Isfahan and Natanz. But Fordow, because it is buried some 200-300 meters deep, is beyond the range of even our 30,000-pound “Massive Ordnance Penetrator” (MOP), which can be delivered only by our B-2 bombers. The MOP can penetrate only 200 feet, not the 600+ feet that the Fordow facility is so deeply buried.
We know that the Israeli strikes have hit Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. The damage to all three may be significant but unless all three are destroyed Israel can only delay Iran’s march to nuclear weapons. Israel cannot afford a partial win in this war.
From publicly available information, we know that Israel can destroy the entrances to the Fordow facility but they can’t destroy the facility itself except, perhaps, by a raid that would force entry into Fordow and destroy the nuclear equipment there. We must hope that such a raid succeeds because if Fordow isn’t destroyed — and the ayatollah’s regime isn’t ended — the Israelis would have only done half of what is necessary.
As Trump is fond of saying about Ukrainian President Zelensky, Iran doesn’t have any cards left to play. Iran’s “supreme leader” Ayatollah Khameini reportedly fears that the Israeli attack will cause the fall of his regime. He must be well-hidden, but Israeli intelligence, which is far better than ours, should result in his death.
There are some, such as French President Macron, who are urging de-escalation of the war. (That is what former president Biden would have done.) They can and will be ignored.
Russian President Putin told Trump that he’d be glad to mediate a peace agreement between Israel and Iran. He’d be just as good at that as he is in making peace with Ukraine.
There are even some, such as former Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, who are stupid enough to say that only China has the “moral authority” to bring about peace between Iran and Israel. Walz has redundantly proved himself to be an idiot. China, of course, imports 90 percent of Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions. It is Iran’s ally and no “moral authority” in the Middle East or anywhere else.
The Israelis cannot let up on their attacks and they won’t. With satellite imagery they can even destroy Iran’s mobile missile launchers. Nevertheless, their concentration must be on Fordow, Isfahan, Natanz, and the ayatollahs themselves.
Another target is begging for the Israelis to bomb it: Kharg Island. The island is Iran’s principal oil export facility. Bombing it would both cripple the Iranian economy and hurt China. That target should be high on Israel’s list.
Trump still is offering Iran a deal. At this point, the deal would have to include the verified destruction of Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, which Khameini would obviously refuse. There can be no deal with Iran that doesn’t include the destruction of all its nuclear facilities and regime change in Tehran.
In the 1990s, Iran was careful of its actions. They were calibrated to not cause Israel or the U.S. to undertake military actions. Those days are over. Because of their arrogance and because Trump and Netanyahu are not people who will fall for their maneuvering the ayatollahs are doomed. They, and their nuclear facilities, must be destroyed.
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