Phil, if you believe the RCP analysis and accept their chart as accurate (I do have a quibble since they include the tremendously volatile Rasmussen poll but that’s not central here) then there’s not much support for the “ah they are on to him” theory that Rudy’s support is crumbling–his numbers are about where they have been for awhile. Is there a Thompson bounce? Yes. Will it last longer than Romney’s Ames bounce? Who knows. But, we should all take this –including the apparent McCain movement — with a grain of salt as Campaign Spot so aptly demonstrates. At first blush it looks like a big McCain move but in each of these polls his movement is actually within the margin of error, so has he really moved at all? Again, maybe. Really, this is like polling after one of the party’s nominating conventions–whoever has the stage better darn well be making some strides and the test is what they do over time to sustain the bounce.
