Best signals source reports that Iran is over-confident, aggressive, ready for UN sanctions, U.S. aggression, any and all challenges to its authority as a messianic empire that is committed to armed struggle at the end of days.
In Iraq, Iran is in control of intelligence and security apparatus in the fledgling, incoherent, compromised Iraqi government. The Shia of Iraq have more weapons than the U.S. forces in Iraq, and Iran, in control of the Shia militants, can adjust to any U.S. plan.
In the nuke confrontation, Iran is indifferent to the UN sanctions because it already is a nuclear armed power and is eager to demonstrate its fierceness in confrontation or in a strike-counterstrike scenario. Iran’s surrogates in Iraq, in Al Q, in Lebanon and Gaza and the West Bank are ready to attack Israel and the U.S. to harass and undermine confidence in the American security regimes of Iraq and Israel.
Ahmadinejad, the IRGC and the Council of Elders (mullahs) have prepared the Iran defenses not only to ride out a US/Israeli air strike but also to retaliate with a full range of weapons against the U.S. and against the Persian Gulf shipping lanes.
To this end, Iran declared operational this news cycle an Iran built mini-sub that can hide on the uneven bottom of the Gulf and threaten all U.S. tactics to keep the Straits open for supertankers. Iran has also launched new patrol boats in the Caspian Sea to threaten the strategic oil source of Azerbaijan, now under the U.S. umbrella.
Also, there is much noise on signals about a “big bang” sometime between March 21 and April 6: perhaps a strike on Israel, perhaps a strike similar to the Marine barracks of ’83. In any case a strike that will humble the Bush Administration and intimidate the EU.
Iran regards the UN crisis meeting over the next weeks, pursuant to the referral from the IAEA to the Security Council, to be validation of its strategic position to challenge the Great Satan and its allies. Iran regards all condemnations from the UN as an endorsement of its decision to stand and resist. And Iran is assured that in any event, no matter how strong the words at the UN, Russia and China will not agree to sanctions. And even if there is a partial blockade by other means, the borders are porous and/or negligible.
Iran wants oil at $80 to $100 per barrel. At the same time it is hurting the dollar by selling oil at a discount on a bourse in Tehran that accepts Euros, not dollars, for oil. Iran is cocky, apocalyptic, resolute, cunning, disciplined, unafraid of martydom. It will not climb down from the fight. It will challenge the U.S. with words and deeds; it will not surrender.
Consider this a war warning. Not weeks, not months, no certain timetable, at a time of Iran’s choosing.