One of our great readers, Jay Swiatek, is a great enthusiast of thoroughbred racing. He says the Kentucky Derby winner today will be Dunkirk, and he usually knows what he is talking about. I hesitate to bet against him, but I hate to say it: If you arrive at Dunkirk, you need to be rescued. Meanwhile, the pre-race favorite, I Want Revenge, scratched this morning with a foot or ankle problem. Which leaves us….. where?

Well, if I could bet, my rule is to hold all bets below $50. And I am addicted to side bets, so I’ll have several. Here’s how I would break it down.

My actual prediction to win (and this was even before I Want Revenge scratched) is Friesan Fire. Trainer Larry Jones is pretty good; the horse has been running great in his workouts and has a good record; and he has a great pedigree, with Secretariat on it on two lines, along with A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew — and then, to keep from having too many weaknesses in the blood lines (this is my theory: Too much inbreding here in the US among thoroughbreds is making horses more fragile), one side of his pedigree comes from a series of excellent horses in Australia. So:

$24 on Friesan Fire (the #6 horse) to win

Side bets: $12 exacta on the General Quarters (the #12 horse) and Friesan Fire, in that order.

$6 on Musket Man (#2) to show.

And, for my wife, $6 on Chocolate Candy to show.

If it’s the Run for the Roses, nothing goes better with roses than chocolate.

And…. they’re off!!!!! (Okay, still 5 1/2 hours to go, but it felt good writing that!)