James Pindell (via Jim Geraghty) points out that Manchester results come in first, and that’s Hillary’s stronghold. That doesn’t mean that the expected Obama blowout is still going to happen, though. Michael Barone is saying that, with a quarter of precincts in, there’s a real possibility that Hillary could win. And regarding those exit polls, Wlady: A media source tells Geraghty they’re being re-weighted and showing a Clinton victory. This is important to remember: Until they’re weighted to the real returns, the exit polls are just polls — they have a margin of error. Add in the response-bias issues that exit pollsters are vulnerable to, and you can see that the “prior estimate” numbers are only a rough guide to what’s going to happen.
