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The Spectacle Blog
Paul Ryan says he’s “nervous” about the upcoming recall election in his home state of Wisconsin:
Ryan told editors and reporters of The Washington Examiner that the race between Walker and Tom Barrett, the Democratic mayor of Milwaukee, will be close despite a poll released Wednesday by Marquette Law School that shows Walker leading by a comfortable 6 percentage points.
“I’m nervous about it because this is [about] execution, this is turnout, this is too close to call,” Ryan told The Examiner. “But I would rather be Scott Walker than Tom Barrett at this point.”
While it’s always good to refrain from counting one’s unhatched chickens, Congressman Ryan can calm his nerves a bit. Including Marquette Law’s, there have been four polls taken since last week’s primary, and all show Walker in the lead by between 4 and 9 points.
Last week Dave Weigel visited Wisconsin and marveled at the broad coalition of enthusiastic Walker supporters, writing that the Walker campaign “is what every Republican presidential candidate tried and failed to build. There’s a perfect link-up here between Tea Party, Republican Party, and megadonor.” Walker and his allies have a significant financial advantage, and Wisconsin Democrats are complaining that the Democratic National Committee and the Obama campaign aren’t giving them any help. (Commentary’s Jonathan Tobin suspects that Democrats at the national level see the race as a lost cause.)
The recall fight began with a fight over the power of public sector unions, but the Democrats aren’t even trying to run on that cause anymore. As Brett Healy of the Madison-based MacIver Institute tells Weigel, “I must assume that the left has done some polling and their data shows that the public isn’t with them on those issues.” Instead, Barrett has tried to lean on a Bureau of Labor Statistics survey suggesting that Wisconsin has lost jobs during Walker’s tenure.
But the much more comprehensive Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages released this week shows that Wisconsin has actually gained jobs since Walker took office, and there’s little question the latter report is more accurate; it’s a comprehensive analysis of information from nearly every employer in the state, whereas the BLS survey captures only about 3.5% of employers (as anyone who has ever followed employment data from the BLS knows, their numbers are often revised after an initial estimates). Barrett has claimed that Walker would “cook the books” to show a rosier picture, but as John McCormack explains at the Weekly Standard, that’s an absurd charge — the chief economist at the agency that prepared the data signed a petition to recall Walker, so it seems doubtful that he’s doing the governor’s bidding.
Walker quickly cut an ad touting the new data, taunting his opponent: “Mayor Barrett, you said this election’s about jobs. I couldn’t agree more.” With the argument over jobs favoring Walker, it’s hard to see how an underfunded Barrett can mount an effective attack to close the gap; the unions’ ground organization might be worth a point or two, but not five or six. Perhaps something will change in the next three weeks, and the governor’s supporters certainly shouldn’t be complacent, but right now all signs point toward a Walker victory.
View all comments (18) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/05/18/walker-winning-in-wisconsin
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Albert Constantine Jr.| 5.18.12 @ 7:27AM
"Last week Dave Weigel visited Wisconsin and marveled at the broad coalition of enthusiastic Walker supporters"
If I recall correctly, this is the same Dave Weigel who used to live in Delaware, and would marvel about the broad support Mike Castle had, and could not understand how he lost the 2010 Delaware Republican primary for US Senate.
I hope Scott Walker prevails, and there is some comfort to be found in these polls, but I think it is wise to focus on getting out the pro-Walker vote and persuading the undecided that he is the better choice.
Jack in Wi.| 5.18.12 @ 7:39AM
It looks good right now here in Wi. We have to get the vote out. The Democrats are running the same turkey they ran last time. He has been a disaster for the City of Milwaukee. They had some phoney job statistics which showed Wi. doing terrible on the jobs front. Of course they were cooked by Obama's labor dept. Now the truth has come out. This state is on the road to recovery and California, Illinois, and New York etc are in the dumpster. There is no way the unions will ever voluntarily take the hits necessary to get these states uner fiscal control.
martin j smith| 5.18.12 @ 7:30AM
If Walker wins sounds this will be extremely bad news for Obama--good news for me. It will mean that the people of Wisconsin--not the Communist/Socialist thugs--win out and see the light.
hook| 5.18.12 @ 7:56AM
A victory by Walker will be a harbinger of the general election in my view. This is turning into a contest between public sector and much of private sector.
I think people are fed up with freebies and class warfare. Everyone has opportunity here. There is no aristocracy to resent and way more mobility accordingly.
ggoblue| 5.18.12 @ 8:14AM
how awesome it would be to see walker with national aspirations in 2020...knowing that the leftists created their own monster...
Occam's Tool| 5.18.12 @ 10:44AM
Blue: Bingo!
Mikecampbelly2k| 5.18.12 @ 11:36AM
What will that buffoon special Ed Schultz (MSNBC) do on election night when Walker is declared the victor??? The red-face, spittle-flying, eye-bulging, profanity-laced verbal rant will be worth the wait.....
Casey Abell| 5.18.12 @ 11:36AM
The RCP average shows Walker up by six, and the trend is running in his direction after less favorable polls earlier in the year. At this point Barrett needs a game-changer and it's hard to see where it could come from. The issues in the recall have been hashed over for months now.
Still, I wouldn't let up on the ad campign or the ground game. Six points is not a monumental lead.
ditto1958| 5.18.12 @ 12:00PM
Al Davis was known for his slogan, "just win, baby." Anyone who looks at Scott Walker's political career can see that winning elections is exactly what he does. He is good for Wisconsin. I wish him much success. Perhaps in a few years we will see him running for national office.
irish19| 5.18.12 @ 2:19PM
Walker has to beat the margin of fraud-win by at least 5%. IIRC, Dingy Harry Reid was down by 6% right up until election day, but "somehow" managed to win.
Turnout will be critical as will not counting unhatched fowl.
Greg| 5.18.12 @ 3:25PM
If I'm not misstaken,that state is noted for it's vote fraud.
Oldefarte| 5.18.12 @ 4:39PM
Walker represents the very survival of this nation, and should be saluted and applauded fr his supreme courage. I'd even like to see him selected for a federal post under Romney's administration, if he wants same. To think that the entire Democratic/union labor political machine was up in Wisconsin politically assauting Walker over his rightful execution of state elimination of employee union authority is mind boggling and typical of the community orgainzing BS that this country is now faced with. Wisconsin needs to completely send Barnett packing, as this recall is/was a completel waste of Wisconsin's taxpayers money to have to defend and for Republican political contributors nationwide to have to fund Walker's defense for, but that politics at least currently. Walker and Wisconsin represents the ultimate battleground that will transferred to November's election. So goes Walker, so goes this country. Our thoughts, prayers and money [if possible] should be with this courageous Governor Walker!!!!!!!!!
Oldefarte| 5.19.12 @ 11:37AM
PS: For anyone interested:
'.....Times 24|7 The Skinny WashingtonTimes.com
Wright says Obama considered himself Muslim BlogsFox News by: Fox NewsFriday, May 18, 2012
"When I asked the Rev. Wright about this whole question of Islam and Christianity, he said, well, you know, Barack Obama was steeped in Islam," author Ed Klein said. Photo Credit:AP Fox News host Sean Hannity: Here is author Ed Klein. We will do what the mainstream media will not do, we will play the tapes of his recent interview with the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. ...
KLEIN: Do you think he ever thought of himself as Muslim?
WRIGHT: Yes. ...
HANNITY: What do you think of that?
KLEIN: Well, I was very interested in another part of that, as well, which is, when I asked the Reverend Wright about this whole question of Islam and Christianity, he said, "Well, you know, Barack Obama was steeped in Islam. He knew a lot about Islam from his childhood. But he knew very little about Christianity. And I made it easy for him to feel not guilty about learning about Christianity without turning his back on his Islamic friends."...........'
Bill| 5.19.12 @ 3:23PM
A salute to great Scott Walker from Sunshine state!
Occam's Tool| 5.20.12 @ 11:52PM
Wright was a Black Muslim himself at one time...
xiaochen| 5.21.12 @ 4:11AM
And I made it easy for him to feel not guilty about learning about Christianity without turning his back on his Islamic friends."...........'chaussures nike shox r5