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The Spectacle Blog
New congressional redistricting maps for North Carolina are out. As expected, a significant advantage goes to Republicans. So significant, in fact, that after the 2012 elections the GOP should control nine out of 13 congressional seats — and possibly 10 out of 13.
The latter scenario would be a net four seat pick-up, because Democrats now have a seven-to-six advantage in the congressional delegation.
The new maps pack Democratic voters into both of North Carolina’s Voting Right Act districts, which have a majority of minority voters, and into a third mostly urban district in the central part of the state. That leaves the other ten districts strongly Republican, leaning Republican, or swing.
Rep. Heath Shuler, of North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, is toast after the redrawn maps took out a chunk of his liberal base in Asheville. American Spectator readers will remember him as the upstart Blue Dog Democrat who challenged Nancy Pelosi for House Minority Leader last year. Shuler’s district is now one of the most conservative in the state. Count on a Republican gain here.
Another conservative-leaning Democrat — Rep. Larry Kissell of the 8th Congressional District — is going to have an uphill climb, too. Ditto for uber-liberal Rep. Brad Miller of the 13th Congressional District. Devoted connoisseurs of Tar Heel politics will recall Miller from the last round of redistricting in 2001. Miller, then a state senator, chaired the committee that drew the boundaries for the congressional district he later ran in. Essentially, he hand-tailored his own district.
Republicans had the last laugh, though, by carving up Miller’s formerly safe Democratic district into a GOP-safe one.
Of all the Democrats, Rep. Mike McIntyre of the 7th Congressional District fared the best. Under the new maps, he’ll face a tough, but not insurmountable, challenge. McIntyre is the only Democrat from the Old North State who voted to overturn ObamaCare.
All this is contingent on the maps remaining substantially as they are after an inevitable round or two (or three) of litigation.
View all comments (6) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by David N. Bass
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/07/05/ncs-redistricting-maps-could-o
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Casey Abell| 7.5.11 @ 11:36AM
If the map withstands Voting Rights scrutiny, which it probably will because it virtually guarantees black representation in the NC delegation, this is just the beginning of the real fruits of the 2010 election for the GOP. Those little election thingies do have consequences, after all.
The Repub pickups in the state legislatures and governors' mansions went relatively unnoticed...until now.
JP| 7.5.11 @ 11:41AM
Another casualty of ObamaCare. The Blue Dogs, those indepently conservative Democrats, turned out to be nothing more than Pelosi lapdogs. When it counted, the Blue Dogs voted in lockstep with the Progressives and Leftists. Indiana will also lose between 2-3 Dem seats next year. If the trends hold, this means that between Indiana and North Carolina, the GOP will pick up anywhere between 4 and 6 House seats come 2013. And that is just 2 states.
Charles Martel| 7.5.11 @ 1:18PM
And Texas got four new seats, though given our Legislature's leadership, it wouldn't surprise me if the alleged-Republican speaker gave all four to the enemy.
+++
Aarradin| 7.5.11 @ 2:02PM
The D's are hurting for another reason in IN - public sector union dues are down over 90% since Mitch Daniels stopped the state from deducting them from paychecks. Since union officials will, of course, not cut their own salaries and still need to represent their members, this means that contributions from these unions to Democrats will be off by nearly 100%.
This will soon apply to WI as well, since they've stopped these automatic deductions as of the end of June. Other states are doing the same. This is yet another consequence of the state-level gains by R's in 2010.
Without massive contributions from public sector unions, D's will have a tough time raising the funds they need to spread their vicious lies about their opponents. Demagoguery isn't as effective without millions of dollars to put it on TV.
Aarradin| 7.5.11 @ 1:15PM
There is no such thing as a 'conservative Democrat'. Democrats that aren't all in for the tyranny of Socialism, like Shuler, are moderate Dems. They're still leftists and there's nothing about their positions that anyone would identify as Conservative.
The 'blue dogs' are basically leftists that believe in redistribution of wealth - but only so much as can be redistributed without actually bankrupting the country. Financially responsible socialists, if you will.
Derek Leaberry| 7.5.11 @ 4:03PM
Sadly, McIntyre has been helped due to the fact that Wilmington(New Hanover County) has swung left since the 80s. Shirley McLaine lived there for a while. New Hanover even elected a lesbian to the state senate for two terms until she wisely retired in 2010.