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AmSpecBlog
Is Obama's Fade in Ohio a Sign of Things to Come?
For those wondering when the American people are going to start holding President Obama accountable for the weak economy, the answer could be: very soon. Via Ben Smith, I see this new Quinnipiac poll, which found that Obama's favorability rating has dropped to 49 percent in what is considered one of the most reliable political bellwether states in the nation. More telling, voters there now disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy by a 48 percent to 46 percent margin.
Says one of the pollsters:
"The economy in Ohio is as bad as anywhere in America. These numbers indicate that for the first time voters have decided that President Barack Obama bears some responsibility for their problems," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Until now voters have given President Obama high ratings on the economy, blaming former President George W. Bush for their problems. They might be taking out their frustration on President Obama, possibly deciding that the change he promised has not come as quickly as they expected."
"Ohio historically has been the prototypical swing state. One of the reasons Barack Obama won the presidency by such a wide margin is that he carried Ohio with 52 percent of the vote and captured the lion's share of independent votes," Brown added.
"Now, by a 48 - 46 percent margin, Ohio independent voters give the President a failing grade on the economy. These numbers indicate that he may be losing, at least for now, some of those who voted for him in November and should be an indication to the White House that his honeymoon with the voters may be ending."
In the race to replace retiring Ohio Republican Senator Voinovich, the poll also found both Democratic candidates beating all of the Republicans in a hypothetical general election matchup, but the margins were too small to matter 16 months before the 2010 election.
Comments
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Tim| 7.7.09 @ 1:14PM
The media will have to run some "racist Ohio"stories to prod them back in line.
plebis| 7.7.09 @ 2:00PM
OH NO!! the exalted learning driver having never done anything hasn't done anything. what a shocker!
wait until the tax bills come in the mail for all that "free stuff" he promises! not to mention substandard medical care from the 0bama bioethic utilitarian czar.
what a bunch of dummies we will appear to future people who live in what was once America.
Steve| 7.7.09 @ 2:23PM
This could be just the beginning. Another poll conducted by PPP (the Dems), found that just 51% of Ohio voters approving of Obama and 40% disapproving, so it's clear he's on the downward swing in the Buckeye State. If he's going down in Ohio, he's going down in most of America.
James Maedgen| 7.7.09 @ 2:27PM
The people of Ohio are getting exactly what they deserve. Now they are sniveling because their lord and master is not providing their next meal. The wheels will be coming off soon!
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 3:11PM
Philip -- you know that the way you ask the questions in polls affects the results. This is how pollsters manipulate the results. In this case, rather than use the proper marketing research format of asking questions top down, the pollsters specifically asked if they were happy with the economy in Ohio just prior to asking the question about Obama handling the economy. This was separated from previous top down questions and is obvious to any of who have significant experience running consumer research. I'm sure I could ask the questions in such a way to achieve higher favorability ratings. You also don't seem to recognize the variability in the data.
That said, historically we've seen that these types of ratings will improve dramatically when the economy gets better. I'm sure you know this.
Historically, Reagan received an average job approval rating of 53% while highly favorable averages for Reagan were below that of Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson and even Nixon and GW. For that reason, and the reactive nature of these types of numbers, you shouldn't give them much importance.
David T.| 7.7.09 @ 3:31PM
Dear Bob: Ohio voters are not so stupid as you think. We understand poll questions. We also understand that government tax-and-spend policies destroy private enterprise and hurt the economy. Obama's Ohio ratings are going south because of Ohio's economy--not because of "improper marketing research format."
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 3:41PM
David -- I didn't say otherwise except that the way the question was asked exaggerates the result. When the Ohio economy improves, so will the results. That is just an historical fact. You are betting the economy will not improve, but cycles come and go notwithstanding our politicians. This one will do the same.
michael| 7.7.09 @ 3:53PM
As an Ohio citizen it'd almost be worth it to see Cap and Tax passed. Our voters deserve what they get after voting this grifter in office.
sandyinohio| 7.7.09 @ 4:55PM
Also, a recent Gallup poll showed that a mere 20% of voters surveyed SELF-identified as liberal! At least 40% stated they were conservative. If that is an indication, then Obama doesn't have the "mandate" for the extreme liberal paths some want him to take; ie. cap & tax, public option health care, etc. Wake up; the "coasts" are the main liberal bastions along with a few northern midwest thugocracy cities like Detroit & Chicago.
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